Back to the topic. The main reason carloading is down is a slumping economy. For 2019, growth was down to a mediocre 2.3%, from 2.9% in 2018. In the 4th quarter it was only 2.1% likely from the Trump tariffs.
Exactly… transportation is a bellwether…we see it first, and in a few months time it will be revealed to the general public in the evening news.
For historical view:
2010: 2.6%
2011: 1.6%
2012: 2.2%
2013: 1.8%
2014: 2.5%
2015: 2.9%
2016: 1.6%
2017: 2.4%
2018: 2.9%
2019: 2.3%
Correction: According to Statista, all your figures are correct, except for 2017. It should be 2.2%.
So in spite of a huge tax cut, the average growth under the current occupant was only 2.47% annually (Obama 2.17% annually after the Bush recession), even though he boasted about how he would make the economy soar to 4% or 5% annual growth.
I got the number from that notoriously right-wing rag, The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/20/trump-v-obama-economy-charts/
My point is that if the numbers indicate a slumping economy, then the economy has been slumping for the past 11 years.
Is this the bellwether for a recession? Will we have a recession sometime? Of course. We have not had a period of growth years where we did not have a recession to end the growth. It’s a fact of life in our economy. If not in 2020, then probably 2021.
If you want to point out promises that candidates make that do not prove out, check every candidate for the past 200 years.
2018 was a banner year for freight… 2019 much less so… and so far 2020 is shaping up to be slower still.
It’s simply evidence of a slump, getting worse, not a recession. I notice you dismiss this fact and the huge deficit that gave us a sugar fix with just another “what about.”
There is definitely a loss of market share to trucks.The almost total focus on operating ratio, has helped drive business away, coupled with even worse customer service offered with precision railroading. It is a sad state of affairs currently. Wall Street will eventually demand growth in revenues and profits from railroads. I think CN and CP are trying to move ahead in that direction.
I did that?
I thought I showed that if we are heading into a slump with a “mediocre 2.3%” growth, we’ve been heading into one for years. I didn’t dismiss it.
I also don’t remember dismissing the huge deficit. In fact, I don’t remember mentioning the deficit at all. I have been very critical of both parties, who have controlled Congress, for the huge deficits.
COAL!!! Hundreds of coal fired power plants have closed in the U.S. in the last few years, accounting for something like 40% or more of the capacity. Coal mines are closing. The number of coal trains are way down, even from the Powder River Basin. That’s a major drag on rails, which built their systems to handle the rivers of coal during recent decades. That’s all over now. More coal power plant closings are projected over the next few years. Some railroad lines - and maybe railroads - will shut down in the wake of all of these closings.
More likely a Boomer (like me) who isn’t real proficient on computers (like me). He submits his post, but it doesn’t immediately show up on the website. So, he figures something went wrong, and posts it again. Same outcome. Eventually, after he reposts several times, the posts start showing up. Been there, done that. It’s happened to me several times. When it does, I go back and edit the duplicate posts to read “duplicate post deleted”, so I don’t look like a complete computer nincompoop (even though I am).
This whole thread seems to ignore modal shift in transportation. As mentioned, power plant fuel has shifted from rail (coal) to pipeline (gas). Trucking tonnage has gone up 3.3% last year:
https://www.trucking.org/article/ATA-Truck-Tonnage-Index-Increased-3.3-Percent-in-2019
Using rail as an economic leading indicator has been replace by using total transportation stats:
https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/research-confirms-transportation-index-leading-indicator
Thank you. So the economic slump and shifting to pipeline and trucks are a double hit.
Was going to mention shift from coal loads as well. Railroads will need to retrench and find other services to compete for.
Anecdotally I saw many businesses stocking up in anticipation of tariff disputes and retaillers using as a selling point to beat the price increase. So not surprised at a traffic slowdown now.
In fairness I should also mention the modal shift of some crude oil from pipeline to rail, although it is a niche market.
Thanks for the good answers. Now that some of the trade deals are halfway done or more our trade should pick up in 2020 hopefully. Used to see 50 trains a day folkston Georgia. Now 30 is a busy day. The more the merrier. Waycross Georgia. Is double that