Normally you would not be intereted in weather as far as model railways are concerned, however we are out in the garden a lot and weather is important as others have opined.
We have seen you poor Americans get the hell knocked out of you by some terrible weather and when i was in Essex last year they were in the middle of a drought, and as everyone knows, England is infamous for its rain, so something might have changed.
We here in land of sunshine have recently just got through one of the hottest summers in 100 years. Last August we had the coldest day for 50 years, it got down to 12 Deg C. Right now we are experiencing incredible storms; with waves up 17 metres high coming in off the normally tranquil Coral Sea.
What do people think ,is global warming having an serious effect on the worlds weather or is this just a cyclic thing ?
Hi Ian,
I think it could well be a bit of both. The world does go through cycles in its weather, ice ages every 10,000ish years or so and I have read that it is unusual for the planet to have 2 ice caps so id the arctic melts it’s sea ice anyway, but the antartic has a continent under its ice cap, so we would really feel that. All of the crap we have pumped into the atmosphere in the last (almost) couple of hundred years can’t help, remember that every time we run a train a little bit more CO2 goes into the sky from a power station somewhere. I’m really going to go into the lions den here - we have to go nuke to boil the water to power the generators, our options are diappearing quickly.
Cheers,
Kim
It seems like every time I get into a discussion about global warming, I find myself in the contrarian viewpoint. However, I live in Ann Arbor, Mi. USA, and for those of you who aren’t familiar with my geo-political location, I live in a very liberal town, near one of the most liberal universities in all of the US, the University of Michigan. That said, I offer only this opinion and a link. I think it is extremely arrogant of us as humans to think that we actually have the ability to destroy this planet. Anything that we do that may be detrimental to the Earth’s environment will eventually lead to our own destruction as a species and the Earth would eventually heal itself sans humans.
Mt. Pinatubo, in the Phillipines, during it’s last eruption sent more hydrocarbons into the air than all of mankind did during the industrial revolution of the preceding 100 years, and Mother Earth srcubbed the atmosphere clean in just under three years.
Weather guessers and environmentalists don’t have enough historical data to make most of the claims that they make. The Earth is purported to be over four billion years old. She has survived asteroid collisions and mega volcanic eruptions. We are doing more today than ever before to be more environmentally conscious. There is an entire industry dedicated to reducing toxic emissions and they are going into the air at a far reduced rate than even thirty years ago. In my most humble opinion, this thing is cyclical.
I like this particular website. It looks at things from a scientific perspective with regards to global warming. Enjoy.
Its hard to say what the long term effects will be. Last winter we had 4x normal rain fall this year were under the norm.
Kims comment about the artic ice sheets is true. Remember Greenland got its name because when the Vikings found it, it was very very green with tundra grasses, no ice like in Iceland. it subsequently got colder and killed all the Viking settlers who lived there but stubbornly refused to change their lifestyle to match the changing climate ( is there an object lesson there? )
The real problem sea-level wise if if the Antarctic ice sheets go, we are in deep poo-poo coastal wise.
Quite right Vic, and being a coastal person I do take an interest in it. Mark is quite right when he calls us arogant, we are when we disregard the health of this planet so a relative few can make mega bucks now and have absolutely no cares at all for the people who will follow on. It’s not us now, certainly not me at 54, but the kids I see every day will probably have big problems in 100 years or so, especially if some big land mass ice sheets start going, not exactly Costner’s Water World but the 30% land we have will be shrinking. In a time to come the world may well celebrate when all of the fossel fuels have gone, cleaner air for all and the middle eastern gents will be back to owning sand, big empty spaces full of it!
Kim
It is cyclical, how else would you explain the fossils of tropical prehistoric animals and birds that have been found in ice encrusted or once ice encrusted areas?
Don’t want to get washed away, don’t build in a New Orleans neighborhood that’s 18 feet below sea level! I wouldn’t even want to build within 10 feet above sea level. I’m just a couple of miles from the Oceanfront, yet my land is 27 feet above sea level! My thoughts are that they are throwing my good tax money after bad when they rebuild anything that is on land less than 10 feet above sea level. Bulldoze NO under and let it revert to the swamp it was just a short 300 years ago, The only reason it got settled in the first place was as a pirate’s hideaway! Remember Jean LaFitte!
Actually Bob the fossils found in icey Antartica were alive when that continent was actually where where the Indian Ocean is now, when Pangea the supercontinent (all the landmasses had crumpled into each other about 400million years ago to make one big’un) broke up some 200 million years Africa, Asia Europe, Antarctica and India all drifted east While North and South America went west (it split at the mid-Atlantic ridge) While Africa was moving east Antarctica, Australia and India moved more southward, part of this land mss, India, overran the indian crustal plate moved north so fast that within only a few million years it crossed the indian ocean and slammed into Asia with so much force it created the Himilayas! Meanwhile Antarctica moved ever southward into colder latitudes, eventually down below the arctic circle, killing all life there. Eventually milions of years from now it will move back into warmer climates as it moves up into the pacific
OK geology lesson over …Sorry if its a bit long but I do like the subject![:D]
The problem with sea level rise is that so many cities are in real danger of suffering seasonal or permanent flooding. The artic ice rests on the water so if it melts the sea level doesnt rise, however Antarctic ice is on continental crust, it melts and its adding water to the sea level raising them worldwide. Where in the US New Orleans, New York, most of Florida and long stretches of the Gulf and elsewhere in the US are at or near sea level and if the sea rises a couple feet will see tremendous changes, London is not very high above sea level and has had severe tidal floods in the past, at least it now has a barrier, but Venice in Italy could be devestated, Holland, Bangladesh?
All I know - 18" of wet heavy snow in October which brought down two trees; virtually nothing in the way of precipitation in metro Denver since then, but the mountains are having record snowfalls (and windfalls from ski revenues!). Go figure. Today, 70°, and I’ve got the sprinkler going in the back yard trying to breathe life into what’s left of the greenery on the railroad. I lost about half my plants thanks to the dry weather, winter dormancy notwithstanding. It’ll be interesting to see what actually comes back this spring. Good thing I saved the receipts.
Well Vic, I’m sure you were there to see it all happen…[swg]
I agree with the consensus, we don’t have enough information on long term global weather patterns to make a determination if the climate is 1. changing naturaly, 2. changing due to pollutants (natural and artificial) 3. changing at all, 4. going through a “cycle” or 5. terra-forming as a prelude to alien invasion.
We should, however, be concerned with pollution. Not so much for the health of the planet, but for our own health and quality of life. Serves no purpose to kill all the fish and then leave nothing for us to eat. I say cut down the tree, use it all wisely, then plant another one in it’s place. Resource management is the key, not depriving the human race (which incidently is a part of the ecosystem as a predatory species) of the ability to survive and thrive.
I also went to an Uber-liberal university and I didn’t see one, not one, protesting tree-hugger ride a horse to school, they all drove VW’s or Beemers bought with Daddy’s money. Last I checked, a VW runs on fossile fuel. I had somebody in a grossly oversized SUV shout me down for being an Earth killer because I was wearing leather. Strange.
Tj,
A lot to what you say! A subject for argument from many aspects and sets of facts!
While I will do my bit to preserve things, I don’t figure to be here but at most another 30 years; and I don’t think the changes will be that drastic within that time frame.
Before the flamers come along, yes I have children and grandkids, and I’d like to have them live at least as well as I have; that’s why I will do my bit, however, it’s kinda like the weather, you’ll take what you get and bloody well like it, so, why worry?
The Okanagan weather update:
Snow in the forecast for Wednesday for our XC skiing area, the Loppet goes on Saturday, just a bit of extra snow will be good. Makes for more “interesting” waxing.
BTW for those in those “mild” climates, [;)][}:)][;)] one can get CAT-skiis which work very well on the beach and just about any terrain.
With the one proviso - akin to Large Scale railroading, electrics, electronics etc. etc. - it helps immensely if one has some inkling how XC skiing works.[;)][8D][}:)][8D][;)]
I can only say BRAVO to that! I’ve heard so many confilicting opinions, so many changes in opinions from people who profess to know what’s happening, that I’ve ended up where I don’t believe “ANY” of them.
It seems that every day you hear about something else that is bad for you, and then the next day, it’s good for you and visa-versa.
I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s pure arrogance for people to think they know what’s going to happen, or what’s good or bad for you.
Remember “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”. There’s been too much wolf crying and Chicken Little “The sky is falling” hype and propaganda lately for me to believe what anyone tells me.
Here comes the wolf, and the sky is falling!!! Help me, help me, oh dear! What shall I do??
I think I 'll have the wolf go catch Chicken Little and the two of us will have a bar-be-que!!!
Just finished an interesting book by Michael Crieghton, State of Fear. The point he’s making is that there isn’t enough accurate data to support the notion that CO2 is causing global warming, a good read. Presents some interesting facts that may cause you to reconsider some of your opinions if you’re in the CO2= global warming camp.
As with so many controversial debates raging today, there are volumes of data presented by both sides of the argument that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that THEY are right. So I guess you either fall in behind the guy you THINK may be right or you just stand on the sidelines and cheer for both sides. Right now I’m on the 50 yard line waving pom-poms from each team.
Our global energy demand is growing daily and fossil fuels seem to be the only viable source. When the oil runs out there’s a fair amount of coal around which could carry us for another 100 years or so. Potentially it’s more polluting than oil but it may give us enough time to develop other sources. I hope so because fusion is way over the horizon and nuclear is still a little scarey. Hydrogen apparently isn’t everything it’s cracked up to be. In the meantime hydro, wind, solar, and bio-mass collectively don’t appear to have the potential to get the job done, and I don’t think we are ever going to get serious about conservation. So it appears that we have a very narrow window to resolve this and that that window could be very grimey and hot indeed.
I don’t think the issue is weather we will destroy the planet, we won’t. We may just destroy ourselves and the planet will recycle to it’s original pristine state. A new species will evolve and the cycle will start again. Who knows, maybe on the next go-around the new guys will be a little smarter than we are.
Ian has started an interesting topic here. I think the main thing is that if you mess with things on a planetary scale you will reap as you sow. To be fair to our great grandfathers they didn’t know what they where doing when they pumped the waste from their factories into the atmosphere, the wake up calls started in the late 50’s, early 60’s and I can remember the smogs we used to get in the industrial towns, no daylight for three or four days, disgusting taste in your mouth just from breathing etc etc. In the UK this brought in laws on burning smokeless fuels and smog became a thing of the past but CO2 was still pumped into the atmosphere. It’s not called the green house effect for nothing people, that CO2 has to go somewhere and if the majority of it concentrates in the higher atmosphere then the plants can’t get at it to convert it into oxygen for us. I think basically, there’s to many of us all breathing out CO2 - and methane from the other end! - too many gas guzzling cars and way too little control on CO2 emissions from industry, together with the fleuro carbons etc etc. It’s a fact that the ice is going, in Antarctica it’s only the sea ice at the moment but that land ice will follow and new seaside towns will be created.
Cheers,
Kim
I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned cheap air travel as a possible cause. The odd weather seems to have become more common of late, at around the same time as budget airlines have become popular. An airliner burns a lot more fuel than a car - most calculations suggest that one return flight across the Atlantic will produce more CO2 per passenger than the average car produces in a year. Funny how any suggestion of taxing aviation fuel is rebuffed while we pay 70% tax on road fuels…
Cheeze, I thought China found out that the Spay-Neuter, put people in jail for having more than the allowance of children thing didn’t work!
Here we are belching about overpopulation in one breath, yet still fighting over abortion rights with the next! Let those who think we are overpopulated do thier part and go get fixed before they reproduce!
This all started out with a theory about the apparent changes in weather, and how it effects our trains. I can’t see where anything I, or a whole bunch of I’s do is gonna make much of a change in things; so, I SAY IF IT AIN’T RAINING, OR ROASTING, OR FREEZING LET’S JUST GO PLAY WITH OUR TRAINS. It will be suitable weather tomorrow or the next day anyhow!
I am absolutely amazed at the civility of discussion of this topic. Bravo to everyone.
Without trying to sound like I’m hijacking this topic, I’d like to piggy-back on what Capt. Bob said about children and grandchildren and say that I’m more fearful for their employment opportunities 30 years down the road than I am for their environmental concerns. I keep trying to look forward at opportunities that correspond to their desires and coax them in that direction. Planting the seeds early might help them in the long run.
At the end of it all there won’t be any winners or any loosers, the planet will be what it is at that moment in time. What will happen - I think - is that it will be like a war, where the victors write the history books, but in this case the population then will look back and mark off where stupidity, greed etc took over now and in the years to come. Many countries are signed up to reduce emmissions over the next 20 few years but more importantly many countries aren’t, no nameing names here! It is something that we all have to do, we all have to drive economical or hybrid vehicles, we have to stop using CFC’s, plant a tree for every one cut down etc etc.
In the mean time, I’ve taken a day off work, it’s raining like you wouldn’t believe and I can’t get a train out. On the up side my new pond has arrived and will be dug out as time allows and the ground drains sufficiently for me to actually dig a hole. I’ve also got the central heating on so I guess that makes me an hipocrate.
Kim
There is some information that supports the air travel theory. When all air traffic was halted over the US during the days following September 11, 2001, the weather patterns, temperature etc, were clearly and directly impacted. Fewer clouds formed and the average temperature went down a few degrees. It is very interesting that everybody knows a contrail from a jet can cause clouds to form, that exhaust fumes are put directly into the upper atmoshpere, but nobody connected it to the weather??? Interesting, very interesting…