The 2000s gave us:
So what do you foresee in the new decade for the hobby? Trends, practices, innovations, etc?
Let’s hear it…
I think we will see more locos have LEDs and other lighting effects already installed at the factory.
I hope the kit manufacturers (Accurail and others) will stay in business.
We will probably see more locos that are offered with DCC on board than standard DC.
Maybe some more economical scenery techniques.
I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know much.
The industry will continue to evolve. It has since it started. Not to worry.
Rich
So what do you foresee in the new decade for the hobby? Trends, practices, innovations, etc?
Let’s hear it…
On 12/21/2012, the world will come to an end and the hobby will cease to exist.
The Mayans have been predicting the death of the hobby longer than our resident Prophet O’Doom.
Andre
Andre:
Oh, Good God, did you go see that stupid movie, too, LOL? [:P]
Tom [:D]
The industrial revolution hits central Africa, all our stuff is made by trained chimps.
The only quibbles I would have with your examples would be styrofoam accepted as a scenery material - it has been in widespread use since at least the early/mid 80s - and DCC, while it has become much more prevalent, has been around since since well before the millenium. Its predecessors date to the 60s, although they were not digital.
David
Nope. I wouldn’t waste a dime on it. I’ve just known about this so-called prediction for years.
Andre
Yes, BLI, in accordance with Mayan prophecy, will announce the end of the world in 2012. In November of 2012, they will announce that the end of the world has slipped, and will happen at a some later time, To Be Announced.
I’m referring to their general acceptance and commercial availability. Surely DCC was developed decades ago, but it didn’t become mainstream until the 2000s. For example, the Wright Brothers invented human flight in the early 1900s, but people as a whole didn’t take airline flights until the 1930s. Likewise, the Internet started in 1969, but it didn’t enter the mainstream consciousness until the 1990s.
As for styrofoam, I’ve been in this hobby since 1980, and didn’t hear about extruded styrofoam rock carvings in books, magazine or online until just a few years ago. Also, Woodland Scenics’ foam products have only hit the market just a few years ago. That is where I base my facts on.
If it’s any consolation, Nostradamus made his predictions up to the year 3797.
I think/hope that some time with in the next decade someone will come out with flex track on a roll.
No soldering no gluing just peel off a protective strip on the bottom and roll it on to the roadbed and press it down. Heck the advanced version will even have ballast in place.
Seriously though with technology the way it is and everything developing so fast and so unbelievable The possibility’s seem almost limitless. I hope dcc and the control systems go the way of the pocket calculator and the PC cost wise. Remember how much you paid for your first pocket calculator and how BIG it was?Now there every where for a fraction of their original cost. Same with PC’s what you paid a couple of thousand dollars for back in 2000 is now a tinker toy compared to what they have out now for a quarter of the price. Think about an I pod, where they even around back in 2000? but how you can fit literally thousands of songs on something not much larger then a credit card. I want to see those leaps and bounds an cost reductions come to the hobby. Old school modeling is good nothing wrong with it as it will always be here and never change but some of the new stuff is just so darned neat.
Difficult to predict any new trends in model railroading technologies and materials. The last two decades have seen leaps forward in electronics, which made sound and multi-train control on single track affordable to the masses. We will most likely see a lot more animated accessories entering the market, as those sub-miniature servos open up a whole bunch of new opportunities for this. Sound may become more sophisticated and enter the smaller scales, providing that the speaker issue can be solved and the chuff of a steamer is not a squeak, but a bark… [:D]
The global financial crisis has set limitations on the funds spendable for model railroading purposes. The last few year have seen the demise of many a renowned manufacturer, some of which were saved, but not all. We could thus see a smaller number of suppliers in the market. Traditional brands, like Rivarossi, Jouef, Lima, Arnold are now Hornby, Liliput is Bachmann, and Roco acquired Fleischmann. IHC, who used to be the sales outlet for Mehano locos, appears to be history by now. How other US brands will be affected, I don´t want to predict…
In any case, I don´t see our hobby to become cheaper.
Here’s my predictions:
Nanotechnology: It already exists, it’s just going to be useful for modelers. You know those fans on top of your SD70ACe? Now imagine them spinning. In Z scale.
Wireless. Wireless DCC is already here, but like telephones, it’s going to be the norm rather than a gimmick.
Interfacing with other technologies. How about using your iPhone or Blackberry as a (wireless) DCC throttle and programmer?
Continued popularity of smaller scales. As population increases and the average size of households decreases, N and Z gain even more in popularity, with N virtually equaling the popularity of HO by the end of the decade.
Holographic animation. Wanna see people walk your model streets? Automobiles drive around your layout town? Wanna see steam, smoke and diesel exhaust in your layout without having to breathe it? Holographic technology can make it all possible.
Scale model sound units will enter leaps and bounds with a sound system that combines current sound technology methods with surround sound (picture a subwoofer under the layout and speakers in various locations around the pike. Prototype trains are mostly lower frequency rumble, which the current systems totally lack, and this can be simulated with the new sound technology.
Mag-lev models. Not just mere models of magnetic levitation trains, but models that, like the prototype, run on magnetic levitation as well!
Kato will partner with Parvia in manufacturing a semi-prefab structure/scenery system for the masses as a compliment to the Unitrack system. Think of the midway point between LEGO and fine-scale modeling. Will be popular with children who are old enough to handle smaller scales, yet too young for truly detailed modeling.
My predictions are a continuation of current trends:
Continued loss of economy kits such as Accurail. By the end of the decade they are all gone.
Continued increase in high cost low production resin kits.
Computer software to run your DCC layouts becomes available and easy to use.
HO remains the most popular scale but it’s share of modelers declines. N gains the most and rivals HO by the end of the decade, but Z, S, and O all gain in popularity albeit behind N and HO.
Hobby shops continue to disappear, by the end of the decade all but a few large ones remain. Most of their business is online, but they have a small on site retail space.
All print magazines except Model Railroader are gone.
Enjoy
Paul
One thing I see is we will enjoy more excellent models from the box as the manufacturers compete for our hobby dollars.
You saw “Planet of The Apes” right?
Niche markets open up for specialized locomotives–small steam, logging locomotives, that type o’ thing. Cost? Different story—depends on mode of building them.
Sound will improve over time–Bose may start building small speakers to fit in HO/N scale trains[:-,]
Earphones may be used for the locomotives sounds as well----dinged frying pans will be no longer an issue[:D]
Prices will, on the majority of things go up and up and up as fewer buyers have $$$ to buy[:-^]
Instead of actually working to GROW the market, the idea will be to shrink it by promoting video train simulation even more----forget about RTR
RTR in HO/N scale locomotives will be priced so high that brass will come to be seen as cheap
And the Barrowsian Domino scheme will be the only thing left-------[xx(]
In 2011 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term “switch” or “turnout” is prototypically correct.
In 2012 MTH will sue another manufacturer for patent infringement.
In 2013 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term “switch” or “turnout” is prototypically correct.
In 2015 an RFID car identification system will become available.
In 2016 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term “switch” or “turnout” is prototypically correct.
In 2017 the last plastic kit for a rail car will be produced, every car sold after that will either RTR or a craftsman kit.
In 2018 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term “switch” or “turnout” is prototypically correct.
In 2019 a computer program will be perfected to let the modeler build track on a “green screen” layout and then then use CGI to build scenery so the modeler can watch his models operate through whatever scenery he wants.
In 2019 the forums will have a heated discussion of whether the term “switch” or “turnout” is prototypically correct.
I foresee:
– Higher prices
– Fewer LHS’s
– More BIG (special-interest) steam from MTH and BLI
Other Developments I Foresee in 2010:
– An unanticipated shortage of empty Athearn Blue Boxes, finally vindicating a few certain sellers on ebay
– Bachmann unveils their Spectrum version of an 0-5-0 (BLI soon follows with their version equipped with sound)
– Walthers purchases the one lone remaining holdout manufacturer not already owned by Walthers
– MRC introduces the first “green” power-pack, complete with a solar cell for sunny days and a wind-up key for when it rains.
– Tsunami comes out with their first low-cost sound module aimed at the DIY crowd. I’ve obtained an advance copy of the user’s manual:
Step 1. Clear your throat.
Step 2. Follow your train and utter the words “Choo” and “Choo” in rapid succession.
Step 3. At periodic intervals loudly exclaim “Woo Woo!”
Step 4. At road crossings and station stops make a loud “Ding Ding” type noise.
Note: If supported by your prototype you may substitute either “Ding Dong” or “Clang Clang” instead.
Step 5. Repeat steps 2 through 4 in any order
– President Obama reveals that he has long been a closet Model Railroader and is a fan of the Illinois Central. Orders the secret service to change out of their MIB uniforms and adopt the more traditional striped overalls, red kerchef, and Hardee Hat. President Obama also ordered the U.S. Mint to issue authentic gold railroad watches to all senior government officials.
– The price of plastic escalates skyward due to the increasing demand for finely-detailed locomotives and rolling
Self propelled trains, with minute and very long lasting batteries, with wireless control. Instead of DCC programming tracks, we will have recharging tracks to avoid having to remove the batteries (until they create the battery that lasts a lifetime – that comes in the 2020s).
More Z scale. Maybe not at the expense of other scales, but more Z.
The price advantages of manufacturing in China will decrease as the Chinese people start to demand something higher than subsistence wages. Think North Korea. Maybe Africa. But the bosses will be Chinese.
NMRA splits into scale specific organizations, and within each scale, more divisions into regular standards, semi-exact, and absolute scale. This means there might be less mass marketing of trains and thus higher prices, with new locomotives being offered in three versions.
Sound in everything (see battery discussion above).
More animation. Cars will move, trees will sway, flags will flutter. We won’t even talk about the scale pigeons!
Backdrops will be plasma screens with slow moving clouds, distant moving traffic, changes in sun angle.
Swear words will be allowed in these Forums. Prohibitions on nudity will mostly remain (but wait for the 2020s!)
The Barrowsian Domino scheme will enjoy its well deserved total triumph [swg] because “lifetime” layouts will take less time to build and restless modelers will keep changing layouts, changing scales, eras, and prototypes, or will be moving from one degree of scale accuracy to another – and lumber will be so darned expensive that any method that encourages its re-use (or sale to others if you leave the hobby) will be almost mandatory.