But they encourage you to pre-order to be among the first notified when it occurs.
Based on what has transpired over the past few decades, Paul’s prognostications are probably far more likely to come to pass than what many others have suggested. To his list, I would add that the following will likely come to pass by the end of the decade if current trends hold:
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Most locomotives and rollingstock will only be available on a pre-ordered, pre-paid, basis. A great many obscure engines will be “announced” but never produced because of lack of subscription. The popular segment of the hobby will be almost exclusively RTR.
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By the end of the decade the price of the average quality plastic steam loco will be in the $1,500 range, while that of diesels will be $500 per switcher, $750+ for a road engine and a minimum of $1,250 for any A+B sets. Brass will remain but not as a part of the actual layout operating hobby. Low-end, or entry-level equipment will disappear from the marketplace totally and those brave enough to enter the hobby will be forced to deal almost exclusively
CNJ831,
the picture you paint is a failrly bleak one, but I am afraid, your are not that far off, if current trends continue.
There is already talk of pay-as-you-go Internet sites now. A couple of them are charging “membership” now—part of that growing “market”. I could also see most MR magazines being quarterly–at 80-100 pages and premium prices.
As for that dichotomy I suspect we will see what could be seen in some places in Europe—MR and Fine Scale.
I think the QA issue will kill that outsourcing — either that or you’ll see a further drop in quality as end-user repairs become “normal” It may in fact force hobbyists out completely as they discover that there still needs be some form of hands on being done, or, some people discover the joy in fiddling/tinkering and start up “garages” to repair locomotives for others. The idea of Africa being the last bastion of cheap labour may already be problematic as there is a sort of movement now to get workers there up to speed on their own rights—
[quote user=“CNJ831”]
7. Ready-made layout sections, fully scenicked and RTR, will bec
The picture was bleak in 1934, but some how we made it to now.
People, all people everywhere, tend to look at history, the world and the future from the limited frame of reference of their own experiances.
The world is much bigger than any of us, and it will keep moving along.
The economies will improve, things will shift, but there is little chance of knowing exactly what those shifts will be.
I guess I’m more optimistic than most of you, but as a self employed believer in capitalism, I have to be.
Marklin, LGB, IHC or whoever are not “entitled” to stay in business, no more than anyone else in business in the whole history of the world. Markets change, companies evolve or die. Athearn has evolved, I think they are well positioned for the nex decade. BLI or MTH may want to decide who their customers really are and find out what those customers want.
Sheldon
#7 is already pretty much out there, although not a true “RTR” thing-- Woodland Scenics has a line of railroad modules that come complete with everything you need to set them up and scenic them-- at least to basic terrain / terraforming. And then they have a number of building kit “sets” (or maybe they’re RTR, not sure) for industrial, light commercial, residential, etc. that you can add to them. Similar to their layout-in-a-box products.
#8 I don’t think will happen quite the to the extent that you suggest and here’s why-- I don’t disagree that there is a widening gap between craftsmen and RTR’ers, but take it to the extreme-- the craftsmen will always have something to talk about and “do” that’s worth reporting and circulating.
You are, in a way, right. The point is that somewhere the idea of one GROWING the market was seemingly thrown out and in it’s place we get this “bottom line” approach that really is not what we started with. FIRST we provided the goods/services and THEN–after we did our jobs so that clients came-- could we talk about profits. Now we look first at the ROI–determine the product–then push that.
But if we continue to do the “deer caught in the headlights” thing what we are seeing will happen. Time to think about what a “market” is–a thing with limited resources—or something that can change—hence grow
RE 2012: “…Misinterpretation of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar is the basis for a New Age belief that a cataclysm will take place on December 21, 2012. December 21, 2012 is simply the last day of the 13th b’ak’tun. But that is not the end of the Long Count because the 14th through 20th b’ak’tuns are still to come…” (from the Wikipedia)
RE the Hobby:
More RTR - Less Kits
More DCC - Less Analog
More On30 offerings - Less G scale offerings
More online ordering - Less Brick & Morter shops
and finally;
More longtimers dying off - Less newbies to replace them
Frankly, I do not like the picture painted here for the future of our hobby. I do hope that things will turn around and the hobby remains as enjoyable as it is today - with a wealth of different manufacturers catering to our various needs. To a degree, this is up to us, supporting manufacturers and local hobby shops of our choice. I really hate to see the hobby turning into a pastime of aging rich men… [:D]
Strictly staying with the OP’s question
As someone stated, more nanotechnology (like spinning exhaust fans)
DCC Throttle/Camera combination: Input type of loco, screen will appear with correct interior view of control stand and view from the windshield via a tiny camera so you can run your loco on your layout, just make sure you keep the windshield clean!
More accurate scenery products such as trees, crops, bushes.
More modular kits that move beyond brick as the building material.
Kits to completely assemble modules based on existing standards (NMRA, N-Trak, Free-Mo).
Ricky
Barry, I agree with you completely on the issue of growing the market rather than “milking” it, which is largely what is done now.
The problem has a lot to with private vs public investment. I doubt Mr Athearn had any stock holders to answer to back in the day.
And, when I complain (yes, I konw I do) about MTH and BLI and their marketing, I am actually complaining about the same issue. They want to control the market by forcing us to buy what they make, rather than making what we want.
Admittedly, some of us want different things, OK, Walthers, Bachmann, Athearn, Intermountain and long list of others seem to be able to offer products with different features and different price ranges for different segments of the market, dispite the current world economics - why can’t BLI or MTH?
One they don’t want to - they would rather tell us what we should have, its easier.
Two, at least in the case of BLI, I don’t think they have enough working capital.
Sheldon
Quality plastic U25c’s in ho
HO C636 (although that may be pushing it for 2010 maybe 2011)
The ability for throttles to show levels of fuel and water/coal will become more widespread
Athearn using led’s (lol right)
As much as I’d hate to sound negative, CNJ and Iron rooster’s scenarios eem most likely.
What I hope happens:
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Stewart finally does the C636 in the executive line
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Hornby brings back the U25C, and brings it up to snuff with newer engines
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A higher-quality SD40-2 and C30-7 are produced. (preferably atlas)
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Bachmann adds grabs irons to its GP7, and offers a version with a Tsunami sound decoder.
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prices drop on everything
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Someone does BN F-units
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Another manufactuer brings in in-expensive kits maybe the old BB cars (like River city railroad and the MDC cars)
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Athearn uses LEDs and light-pipes
And they will be sued by another manufacturer who says he thought of the end of the world first.
You all have got me thinking. After reading some of these posts and going back to work on the milling machine I started doing mental comparisons to my trade, machining. Here’s what I see happening, and I think we’ll all be happier. (Or our children anyway)
There’s a huge trend in engineering towards “rapid prototyping” machines. I see the time in the not to far distant future where all you buy is a standadized motor and gearbox pack, a standard power pack (think rechargable tools, but smaller) and you design the rest. You’ve got the RP machine, cartridges of powdered plastic, nickel silver, brass, etc. You download a file from the net, or fire up the CAD program and do the design of your loco. Standard sub-files are available for details like drivers, truck frames and anything else that may be common to an era. Once you’ve got your design done, you download the program into the RP machine and get cracking. In a hour, you’ve got a still warm version, in whatever scale you desire, of the loco you want. A quick shot with low VOC paints for weathering and you’re good to go.
Who cares what BLI, Athearn, Walthers or any of the rest of them does. With a deal like this, you’re your own manufacturer. If your buddy likes yours, you zap him the file and he makes one just like yours, but of course with the whistle, sandboxes and so on edited to suit his prototype.
Cost? Right now, it’s pretty pricey, and the materials are somewhat limited. Thing is, this technology is growing at an exponential rate. Just like so many of the things we take for granted now, demand and technology will make things possible in 10-20 years that we can only wish for today. Cool part is, if you model trains, your son models warships, and your wife wants new napkin rings for the party this weekend, everybody gets to play. The machine doesn’t care what it makes, as long as it’s within it’s operating envelope. As soon as you’re done with whatever you’ve made,
2016: Intermountain Railway N scale SP Cab Forwards finally arrive.
[quote user=“Javelina”]
You all have got me thinking. After reading some of these posts and going back to work on the milling machine I started doing mental comparisons to my trade, machining. Here’s what I see happening, and I think we’ll all be happier. (Or our children anyway)
There’s a huge trend in engineering towards “rapid prototyping” machines. I see the time in the not to far distant future where all you buy is a standadized motor and gearbox pack, a standard power pack (think rechargable tools, but smaller) and you design the rest. You’ve got the RP machine, cartridges of powdered plastic, nickel silver, brass, etc. You download a file from the net, or fire up the CAD program and do the design of your loco. Standard sub-files are available for details like drivers, truck frames and anything else that may be common to an era. Once you’ve got your design done, you download the program into the RP machine and get cracking. In a hour, you’ve got a still warm version, in whatever scale you desire, of the loco you want. A quick shot with low VOC paints for weathering and you’re good to go.
Who cares what BLI, Athearn, Walthers or any of the rest of them does. With a deal like this, you’re your own manufacturer. If your buddy likes yours, you zap him the file and he makes one just like yours, but of course with the whistle, sandboxes and so on edited to suit his prototype.
Cost? Right now, it’s pretty pricey, and the materials are somewhat limited. Thing is, this technology is growing at an exponential rate. Just like so many of the things we take for granted now, demand and technology will make things possible in 10-20 years that we can only wish for today. Cool part is, if you model trains, your son models warships, and your wife wants new napkin rings for the party this weekend, everybody gets to play. The machine doesn’t care what it makes, as long as it’s within it’s operating envelope. As soon as you’re done with whatever you’ve made, you grind up the mo
Interesting point this one. There seems to be one firm that I’m regularly getting information from that appears to be heading in that general direction. Kind of intriguing that the rapid prototyping idea has picked up as the equipment has come down in price. The only problem is that I’m still not really impressed with the little rills that one gets as the piece is profiled. 3D computer models, however, are more interesting in that one can sort of set out kits in a modular form that much more quicker and can be more cost effective in some ways. One can set up a nice little cottage industry doing it this way.
I was counting on a rapid proto machine to be useful for so much that it would “substitute” for any number of sources we use now for a wide range of products. We (model railroaders) spend lots of money on locos, rolling stock, track, structures an so on. Add it all up and I’ll bet the number would be substantial, maybe even enough to justify a machine. Not to mention the other uses(the napkin rings above) we would have for it. I do like the offsite idea though, especially for big stuff or materials that are not readily available. In any case, the independence from “big-time” manufacturers is what appeals to me. It’d be like the best of R-T-R and scratchbuilt all in one package.
You mean one of these?
Reprap - Rapid Prototyping System
You can build one from scratch with complete plans online. Or purchase critical subassemblies already assembled. Or buy a complete kit of parts. Or buy a completely assembled machine (RTR).
The question is, the way I see it, is which way are you gonna go? The “craftsman” route and make your own “Santa Claus machine” from scratch… or the “RTR” route??? I think the Rapid Prototyping hobby may be about to split… [:D]