It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD.
Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it???
CZ
Lack of money, lack of preorder victums to pay too much only to see the balance for sale at 1/2 price.
Sheldon
You are probably right about the lack of money and MTH is bringing in some parts of the train also. \
CZ
Wondering if they have even carried through with the production tooling. Multi-cavity molds are expensive when you have a tentative demand.
Maybe its because of MTH’s lawsuit against BLI.
I believe we were treated to some pre-production models at one of the shows last year of several cars. They were not painted, but looked fairly good. Anyone have pictures??
CZ
Well, it’s a good argument for switching to N scale since Kato has already released the complete train and a choice of motive power for it.
“I’m a baaaaaad boy” </Lou Costello>
Andre
Once upon a time … all fairy tales start with these words…
Well, once upon a time, there was an annual catalog, which was usually published in time for the Christmas business. All of the items shown in there you could actually buy - no pre-orders, no pre-release notices, no TBD´s. This was heaven! Each year, in February, new models were introduced at the Nuremberg Toy Fair, and you could be sure, that you were able to buy them before Christmas. This was also heaven!
Today, we suffer from limited runs, product announcements, which show up years after the announcements, re-scheduling and you name it.
Takes the fun out of the hobby!
I agree a return to the concept of “inventory” would be better for the hobby and likely better for the manufacturers in the long run.
But my personal solution is to simply not put anything on my “want list” until someone in North America has actually touched a regular production version of the product. I simply don’t consider it to exist until then.
In the April MR that just arrived yesterday there is an open letter from Rapido about the “need” for the pre-order system and the future of their company/product lines. Personally they have yet to make anything I need or want, and while their stuff does look very nice, I don’t care one bit about their money problems (are any of you loosing any sleep about your neighbors money problems?). Either they want to be in business or they don’t, either they can offer products to the market that people buy or they can’t.
If they can’t - oh well, someone will, OR the market simply did not exist in the first place and nothing they did created a new market.
I am a small business, I don’t ask my customers to pay me in adavance or to even commit months or years in advance to buying/needing my services - why should we do that for these manufacturers?
Find enough working capital or get out and leave it those who have proven they know how to do it.
Mass produced model train products have ALWAYS been produced in “batches”, that’s not the problem. If they want to make one batch and wait to see how it goes before making more OK. But don’t tell me up front your only making one battch to get into a pre-order and a high price. Make it, put a price on it, INVEST YOUR MONEY AND TAKE YOUR CHANCES like the rest of business world does.
Athearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while “advertised” a little differently then in the past, is really
Small correction, Sheldon. Atlas has gone the pre-order route, too. Check their home page.
Tom
OK, small correction there, BUT they still sell lots of stuff, track, buildings, signal systems, etc, etc, the old fashioned way. Atlas locos and rolling stock is not high on my radar because so much of it is too new for my era. And, at least up to now, they have always over run their preorders by a fair precentage and put that product out there.
AND, I have seen a fair amount of Atlas locos/rolling stock on store shelves up to now, I guess that may change now.
Sheldon
Several Chinese hobby manufacturers have gone bankrupt – maybe one of them was the company that was to produce the BLI models ----
BLI, the company with the finest selection of unproduced models in the industry. Whatever happened to the “if you build it, they will come approach” which is how it was done for most of the history of the hobby. If you can make a good product and sell it at a reasonable price, you don’t have to worry about a logjam of inventory. Consumers will buy what you build. I’ve never pre-ordered an item and I never will. If you don’t make it first, I won’t buy it. I’m sure a lot of other people feel the same way I do which is why BLI is losing market share to MTH and other competitors. They’ve force me to buy my Dreyfus Hudson from MTH even though I’ve been wanting for years to buy it from BLI. I got tired of waiting. Sorry, but I can’t can’t run pre-ordered locos on my layout.
Yikes, looks like the Paragon 2 Reading T1 got pushed back to TBD also…[:(]
I don’t think Athearn is doing much overproduction either. I believe their Gas Turbine locomotive was delivered to stores sometime last spring and were sold out by the end of summer. The same goes for the Genesis Southern Pacific F7s in bloody nose and black widow that have come out the last couple of years.
I read the letter from Rapido that Atlantic Central refered to a few posts up on this thread also. Like it or not, we live in an era where if it sits on the shelf for more than a couple of months, the bean counters get nervous. If there is something you really want you should probably make the leap when it comes out.
After one of my acquaintance’s experience with Walthers, it would be my bet that when manufacturers announce pre-orders, they are really testing the demand waters, so to speak. Making a pre-production sample is one level of expense - cheap mold dies, single cavity, etc. Pulling the lever for full production with multi-cavity dies is another.
In the scenario where deliveries slide back to TBD or TBA, I would say serious financial obstacles have surfaced and the viability of the run is in question. And it could be a related factor as mentioned, that the Chinese connection went belly up.
The days of having many extra models on the shelf seem to be over like you said, the Turbines were gone fast. This was a model that had only been made in brass and die cast metal (Lionel ) up to the time the 51 series turbine was offered by Athearn. The Veranda will probably sell just as well.
CZ
Let’s see if we can find some commonality in their current offerings. Prr I1 sold out. Second run announced and guess what? Sold out. Prr Q2. Sold out. Prr Centipedes. Sold out. If they ever make an H8, 9 or 10 PRR 2-8-0 they will sell more of them then all these engines combined. The PRR had over 4000 and most serious steam PRR modelers are talking about four or more of them. Apparently PRR modelers are coming through when others are not. So what would you prduce remembering the point of any business is to make money not make certain portions of the hobby happy?
Selling out a first run at the manufacturer and selling out at the dealer level are two different things. I buy lots of Athearn and never have any problem finding a dealer somewhere with what I want, even years after it says it’s out on their web site or at Horizon.
So that shows they are making more than the pre orders by quite a bit.
I get their newsletter and the re-runs of previous stuff are continious. Sure their are gaps in availability, but there always have been. There is a difference between batch production and this preorder non sense.
As for BLI, a few of everything always make the closeout bin, a big mistake if you ask me. The last run of heavy and light Mikados sold out fast, it all sells out fast once they lower the prices to Bachmann levels.
And based on my experiances with the nine pieces I have, BLI quality is no better, or even not as good as Bachmann - and I frankly think the quality from Bachmann as been just fine in the last few years.
Again, you are all welcome to keep pre-ordering, I will wait for the closeouts since we know that is their business model. Athearn never does that because they know they will make more later and want the second, third and fourth batches to have market “value”. Bachmann may have super deep discounts right off the bat, but they too don’t “dump” product. - there is a difference. Examine the prices of the others and you will see what I mean.
Sheldon
I think its because of competition and perceived reduction in sales due to this that BLI is putting it off, or may cancel it, depending on economic factors. There are other manufacturers offering Daylight passenger cars right? Athearn and MTH?
They are producing Daylight passenger cars and that may be enough to siphon off much of the demand and pre-orders. I love my BLI CZ cars but that is the only thing I ever bought from them or anticipate ever buying. But in the current world economy, two manufacturers can’t get away with making too similar a product is my guess. Maybe a couple years ago but now?