Has Trains or anyone received any word on how China RRs are operating around the Huwan ( Wuhan sp? )isolation zone? Understand severl larg ciities are isolated arond Huwan ? Have a daughter that is director for a Univerity’s foreign exchange program. She said that luckly most US students came home due to the Chinese new Year’s celebrations shutting down schooling.
The case in Houston was a student at Wuhan returning for the long holiday.
No outbound passengers from Wuhan or the affected cities in Hubei province. Perhaps trains just pass through without stopping?
Interestingly enough this situation appears to be due to a coronavirus for which there is effective ‘treatment’ via GC376 or GC373. Why it would result in ‘dangerous’ human crossover is not entirely clear to me, nor why it would be difficult to sequence the mutated virus and determine the characteristics of its 3CLpro relatively quickly for treatment.
I am presuming that the course of the ‘infection’ is less with the coronavirus itself than with the futile immune-system response to it, as with FIP and, less directly, the most fulminant responses to the ‘Spanish flu’ clones in the influenza outbreaks of 1918ff.
The CDC, which would know far better than you or I, indicated a three-month time to develop effective treatment. They have started. A confirmed case from Wuhan now in Chicago. She flew here Jan. 13.
It will be highly interesting to see what they come up with, vs. what has already been established to work. But forgive me if my first response to that is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoy4_h7Pb3M
My prediction of what they find:
The condition is not the viral infection per se., but certain aspects of the body’s immune response to its presence. (As in FIP, the syndrome that occurs upon rare but characteristic mutation of feline coronavirus).
The condition will be treated (primarily and initially) not with novel immunomodulation (at least not effectively; for relief of symptoms) but with direct reduction of virus titer. The proven method used for this at present is inactivators of 3C-like proteases, specifically (for feline coronavirus) GC373 and its bisulfite adduct GC376. This cures the ‘infection’ (and hence the mispriming of the immune responses) within no more than a few days at a probable dose of about 100mg/kg.
In cats this is done either by injection or PO, with the dose regimen being continued about 12 weeks; this is similar to the Salk method of polio treatment where the immune system is given isolation from the ‘priming’ regions on the infectious clones for a long enough time to clear antibodies etc. from circulation. During most of that time there will be little overt symptoms, but if the virus titer is allowed to re-establish even slightly you may get almost anaphylactic-shock levels of activation in a comparatively brief time.
If anyone wants documentation on the active regions for 3CLpro inhibition, or the structure of the research compounds, they may PM me in the meantime.
In my opinion ‘three months’ is a ridiculous timeframe, likely driven much mo
Duplicate
Maybe you will be correct, but the CDC has lot of microbologists and experienced immunologists on staff as well as topnotch outside consultants and almost unlimited resources. I would defer to their expertise on the 2019nCoV than YouTube or our resident polymath.
Here is a link to an article of China RR cancellations. Wuhan is effectly isolated.
Hong Kong shutting rail crossings to mainland China.
https://www.railjournal.com/passenger/high-speed/coronavirus-china-railway-cuts-services/
As to your notion that “‘three months is a ridiculous timeframe’” I would remind all to read about the swine flu inoculation disaster that led to deaths from Guillan Barre Syndrome. Rushing is unwise.
I remember the swine flu panic quite well. Never underestimate the power of hysteria, where anything is concerned.
A personal note. I was in the Marines at the time and everyone had to get a swine flu shot. When the day came the Navy hospital corpsmen set up, and the line formed and went out the door.
Now as a matter of form Marine officers are not supposed to cut to the head of a chow line, or supply line, or any kind of line, the troops are supposed to be taken care of first. However in this case since there was a bit of grumbling I decided to set the example and cut in at the head of the line. Several other officers did as well. Nobody complained!
An example of bad, selfish behavior. I’m surprised you got away with that without some unpleasant consequences.
My comment about ‘ridiculous timeframe’ concerned basic research, not “developing an effective vaccine” (or other treatment, likely immunological modulation, which would likely be of much more value in many cases of this kind than a ‘vaccine’ against the virus itself). As a case in point, the 3CLpro inhibitors I mentioned are in full production in China, and it would take far, far less than “three months” to establish their value, and determine specific molecular modifications to them for greater effectiveness against the particular infectious clone(s) of coronavirus (which, creditably, appear to have been sequenced within a few days of the initially-observed issues).
I am well mindful of the previous experience with the cytobiology of AIDS, as this was the test case I ran (in early 1987) against the old version of the NLM database when setting up for the bibliography of my father’s festschrift on retinoblastoma. Much of the ‘research’ involved the various arguments about who had discovered the initial virus, whether you could get it from toilet seats, etc. Actually figuring out why the virus was so deadly (primarily the shifting antigens in the virus coat) took much longer … once the low-hanging fruit from easy grant money was somewhat exhausted, I think.
What I’m expecting to see (hoping otherwise) is that much of the research is going to concentrate on the extraordinary transmissibility reported for at least the ‘lethal’ strain(s). This is important research, and I expect it to lead to vastly increased knowledge, but it is highly unlikely to result in any kind of treatment for the lethality, at least in the time of concern for its uncontrolled propagation into new populations in the presence of Chinese-level quarantine provisions. I am willing to be surprised, of course, and frankly I hope I will be.
I would be happier, of course, if people commenting on medical matte
[;)]
At the risk of being obvious – both charlie hebdo and Flintlock understand the sarcasm. I hope everyone else does, too…
One can only hope! But not always obvious on social media.
At this point it looks like the virus is transmitted easily, but fortunately not very lethal…yet.
I wish I were not as certain about that. It appeared to me (admittedly from little better than press reports and some very early papers) that the lethality compared to the number of identified cases was anomalously high, which was one of the stated concerns over the apparent transmissibility.
I confess to having lived in fear of a ‘return’ of this sort of infection, combining high tendency toward morbidity with great ease of transmission (almost regardless of the incubation time). I think we have grown a little complacent with the Chicken-Little aspects of things like the swine-flu kerfuffle and, later, the vaunted SARS threat.
I will admit, though, that mutated feline coronavirus is NOT the sort of thing I’d expect as ‘the next Mayan’. I only happen to be ‘up on it’ due to having been one of the early people developing a curative regimen for FIP, including the by-now fairly well-developed research into treatment of cats with developed symptoms; I certainly can’t plead tremendous encyclopedic knowledge on CDC-available levels or experience… just on how to shorten the path to practical management of this particular kind of infection from this particular class of agent.
As of this morning, the confirmed cases are just under 10,000 which is more than the SARS total. But deaths are only 213, compared to SARS 774.
That tells me two things, first that they’re commendably on top of giving effective treatment very early, and second, that they appear to have learned a great deal about doing so since the days of SARS.
It is also possible that the mutation that made the virus initially so lethal was a transient one, as was observed a number of times with the ‘Spanish flu’ in 1918 and after, but that isn’t something I’d have relied on occurring… it should make someone an interesting paper to periodically sequence the virus from ‘new’ active cases, or any new evidence of increased virulence, to see.
So we are hoping that this virus does not mutate again ? Have not read any where what China RRs are doing.
fare refunds