Does anyone know what proportion of modellers are using each mode?
I don’t think anyone can answer your question definitively, certainly not with any empirical evidence that I have heard of or seen. Surveys may have yielded an approximation for companies that want to know, but there are inherent problems with validity and reliability in survey methodoligy. Sampling is uncontrolled, for one thing.
My best guess is that DCC is still in its useful infancy to many modelers. Certainly, the older, and more experienced one will resist this relatively new technology more than will more youthful or naive ones…as a very general rule. So, your “typical” user is 50 or younger, quite new to the hobby…maybe within a couple of years, and not averse to learning new stuff. Since there are as many older guys as “young”, you could say that the use of DCC is less than half…and that is about as close as I can get. My gut says it is something like 15-20%, tops.
I’d agree with Crandell. I’ve heard as high as 25% DCC/75% DC.
New technology doesn’t always mean (or guarantee) something is better. But, for me, DCC is the easiest way to run your locomotives prototypically. I have no qualms for making the switch. I do respect those who feel otherwise and understand their reasons for sticking with DC.
Tom
When i started out i started with DC but i never got so deep into it that changing too dcc would cost more then its worth, I have no regrets changing to dcc, Persoanly it makes life easier. but like you said new technology isnt always great sometimes it creates more problems then it solves. but as for dcc im glad i made the change. But i could see if you invest so much work into dc you dont want to change.
one thing i hate about technology the second you ge the latest gadget out and working something new and better comes out.
I RESENT THAT 50 OR YOUNGER CRACK!! Just kidding, but I’m 64 & have been in DCC for almost 2 years - I wish I were in it sooner - but then I would probably have gone through a few different systems by now. Technology is sure to change - but it seems we are already at a point that newer stuff won’t be all that earth shattering - unless they come out with a sound equipped 44 tonner in Z scale! All that said & done, from what the other customers at the LHS say, 20 or 25% may be close in my area at leaast.
I seem to vaguely recall someone posting a poll on this site a couple of years ago asking that same question, when user polls were allowed.
The problem with that is, what percentage of modelers ever use this forum, and what percentage of those who do would respond to the poll?
One statement I don’t agree with, though, is the age factor in determining who is more likely to use DCC. Our HO scale club has been using DCC for over five years, now, and many of us are over 50 by a long shot.
I can’t disagree because…well…who knows…really? I would say, as an educated guess, that there is a stronger association with computer use and participation on this and other fora related to MR than there is between age and use of DCC. For example, someone active on this forum, regardless of other characteristics, including age, is more likely to be a DCC user than is someone who does not use this forum. I say this because those who are familiar with computers and discussion groups are more likely to have had their curiosity piqued by all the members who rave about DCC.
Maybe I am in left field…dunno.
Sorry, but I have to disagree. At 52, I’m among the younger active members of my NMRA division , but certainly not the youngest member to convert to DCC, not by a long shot! Several of the “old guys” in the division, now well into their 70’s and modelling for many years, were among Don Wangrow’s first (System One) customers. These guys aren’t adverse to learning anything, and generally have the time and hobby money that many younger people lack.
Again, at least as far as my NMRA division is concerned, at 52 I’m among the younger minority. The attendance at local train train shows seems to follow the same trend. One of the things often cited when talking about the demise of the hobby is the lack of young(er) people getting involved.
The bottom line is that my guess would be maybe a 20% to 25% adoption rate, not too different from your estimate, but with a good part of that percentage consisting of the “over 50” crowd.
Steve
I’m 59, and admittedly a lifelong tech geek. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the proportion of DCC users is actually higher among the more senior members than among the younger group. First of all, most of us have grown up with DC, and we are well aware of its limitations. We appreciate the ability to run the trains, not the track. For a new modeller just starting out, this distinction isn’t quite as apparant. Next, many of us are “empty nesters” with a bit more time and resources to devote to the hobby. (Personally, I’ve still got a 15-year-old, but late-in-life kids run in the family.) With kids in the house and huge mortgages to pay, there is a lot more competition for dollars earlier in life.
But, don’t take results on this forum and extrapolate them to the general population of model railroaders. Just by being here, we are a select group of tech-savvy individuals, and more likely to pick up on the newer digital technologies than the rest of the folks.
I think the notion that the over 50 crowd might be resistant to DCC might stem from the notion that it was the younger generation that was quick to embrace first the PC and then the internet. That may or may not have been true back then but model railroaders are a different breed and are more apt to be technically inclined. The 50 somethings were in their 20s when the PC revolution began and so are much more likely to be comfortable with new technology. I was a mainframe programmer before I retired and admittedly was what was refered to in my industry as a dinosaur but I am very comfortable with tackling new technologies and had no problems adapting to DCC. I was frankly surprised with how easy it was. I have been a little hesitant to do retrofits on my old DC fleet but that is more a reflection of my manual skills. My DCC fleet is all engines that were either factory equipped or had DCC ready plugs preinstalled. One of these days I’m going to get around to trying to retrofit some of my 1980s locos.
My guess is that the 25/75 ration of DCC to DC is probably a good ballpark estimate. I’d also guess that within 5 years, that figure will reverse itself and in 10 years, it will be a few DC holdouts who are considered the dinosaurs.
This is one of those questions that gets answered on several levels.
On the first, individual modeler level, the answer is 100%. Insert the system of YOUR choice.
On the second, availability of supplies, level, the DCC answer is, “Not enough. Gotta get more.” DCC decoders and such aren’t the kind of things that Joe Average can knock out on his workbench, so there is high interest in keping the manufacturers in the business. On the other hand, the DC answer is, “What, me worry?” Anyone who has ever done even the most basic of electrical designing and assembly can whip up an acceptable DC system from the rawest of materials (12.6v filament transformer, individual power diodes, rotary switch, resistors and a DPDT toggle, plus block wiring.)
On the third, statistic of interest, level, the answer is X of Y, where X is the total number of DC (or DCC) users and Y is the total number of model railroaders (including those using clockwork, live steam, onboard batteries and the 0-5-0.) Since both X and Y change minute by minute, even an omniscient statistician will come up with a ratio which will be obsolete by the time he writes it down. (Now you know why all statistics come with a degree of accuracy statement.)
As for me, I run MZL, analog DC power. What, me worry?
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September 1964, with 1964 electrical technology)