The futurists tell us that, in five years, we will be able to buy automobiles that will drive themselves. There are already prototypes out there and California has enacted a law permitting driverless cars on their highways. I have not heard about any driverless trucks yet, but if we can have driverless cars, driverless trucks are probably on the horizon also. Driverless trucks would cost much less to operate than conventional trucks because of the labor savings.
Here are my questions; What will driverless trucks do to intermodal railroading? Will the economics still favor trains despite the labor savings? Will driverless trucks take all the business away from the railroads? Will the railroads introduce crewless trains to compete? Will the railroads be allowed to have totally crewless trains carrying hazardous materials especially in light of the Lac Magantic wreck?
Those of you who like to play “what if” please weigh in.
Driverless cars and trucks as well as crewless trains are still a long way off. There’s an interesting article in this month’s Popular Mechanics about cars that are able to steer themselves on the highway. The article mentions the year 2018 as the date that this feature might become available in cars. The article goes on to mention that even this type of automated steering is a long way off from total automation.
Hopefully we will learn for the aviation industry. Autopilot as well as other advancements have taken a lot of the skill out of flying, and pilots are no longer as skilled as they once were. My neighbour is a captain for Air Canada. He states that although he is considered a pilot he is in actual fact no more than an onboard technician. He doesn’t fly the plane any longer… even the takeoff and landing is pretty much automated in modern aircraft.
As our vehicles become smarter we will become more dependent on them, and we will become worse drivers. I’m in the trucking business. I now come across experienced drivers who cannot drive anything with a manual transmission. That would have been unheard of even five years ago. And now, with GPS, we get people who couldn’t read a map if their lives depended on it. There’s definitely a downside to automation and smart vehicles.
I hate to be superficial about a serious topic, but somehow the entire notion of driverless trucks brings memories of Dennis Weaver in the movie “Dual.” I think that was the finest made for TV movie ever and fascinating portions are to be found on YouTube. There is almost a truck cult about the vehicle used in that film.
I had a friend that owned a driverless car. It was parked in her garage when the battery exploded, so she attempted to push it out onto the street. What can go wrong, I ask? The car got on the driveway incline and really started to roll, and with her sandwiched in between the open door and the car body. My wife got there to see two feet sticking out from under the car, which was sideways on the street, smashed into another car parked there. Generally unhurt, she looked kinds weird with that tire mark across her shoulder. “What if” all cars were like that?
We are a very long way from fully automated “driverless” vehicles which share the road with conventional (“drivered” if you will) trucks and cars, the technology may be developing but the liability issues are unresolved and unlikely to be anytime soon…
It’s the same reason that unmanned freight trains are not likely in the near-to-mid future, the grade crossing liability issue is unresolved…
Grade crossings are 100% moot. No number of crewmen in the cab will stop a train fro some dope in the grade crossing. If there will be a “crewman” on such trains it will simply be as a sop to the public.
My trains (in HO scale) are fully automated, making all station stops without any inputs from the tower. As tower operator, I give them the green signal at 242nd Street and they are 100% on their own until they get back 21 minutes later. They will stop at Dyckman Street, and I’ll will have to give them a line up into 242nd Street.
All automatic, and NO COMPUTERS: 100% analog operation.
LOOK, IF I CAN DO IT< THEN IT CAN BE DONE IN ANY SCALE.
Ulrich, your comments on aviation remind me of the crash of the French plane in the Atlantic a few years ago. As I recall, there was something mentioned about the speed sensors icing up, and I’m wondering if lack of seat-of-the-pants experience by the crew might have been a factor.
Think, too, about how helpless many of us are when our cellphone battery runs out. We don’t remember phone numbers any more.
Regarding driverless cars and driver proficiency, we may not be risking too much. I notice many drivers today seem to be unable to parallel park, and on our old downtown streets with two lanes of traffic and cars parked on both sides, frequently drivers will wait in a gap until both lanes are clear so they can proceed down the middle of the street. They don’t know the width of their own vehicle. On the other hand, thinking of driverless cars, last spring we were driving southbound in Arkansas knowing full well that we would stay on that highway all the way to I-20 in Louisiana, when in the middle of farmland the GPS suddenly said, “800 yards, turn right.”, then “200 yards, turn right.”, then “Turn right, turn right.” It then re-synced, and all was back to normal. There needs to be so much contingency planning that I don’t see it happening very soon.
True to a degree, but pilots are still required to retain airmanship skills so they can take over when the computer fails. That was a major factor in the recent Asiana crash.
Regarding self driving cars and trucks, I think that will be a long time coming. It would take infrastructure and technology to achieve such an end. Self controlled anything works best in a closed environment.
@Broadwaylion: Your HO system is protected from random acts of stupidity by humans driving cars, trespassing on the ROW and dropping dishwashers on the tracks. Get yerself a small feline and a couple of mice and turn’em loose on your layout. I rather doubt if your automation will handle it. Human controllers USUALLY handle the random unexpected events gracefully and avert some catastrophes that an automated system would just plow right on through without so much as a howdy-do.
The Peterbilt salesman here even says that sales of Peterbilt trucks spiked when Dual came out. That sounds a bit dubious to me, but who knows! I liked the film too… my dream is to own a 1950s Pete with a Detroit engine. Someday!
And a major factor in a couple of other crashes too. The crash in Buffalo back in 09, for example, was in large part due to the pilots not being able to recover from a stall. Replacing skill with automation may come at a cost.
Whether pilots are as skilled as they once were is unknown. Today commercial pilots must pass a check ride every six months. Most check rides are given in simulators, where the demands can be much greater than was the case when proficiency rides were given in real airplanes. If the candidate crashes the simulator, it can be reprogrammed and put back in business. If a real airplane crashes it is not easy to put it back together.
At least at Southwest Airlines, where I have several pilot acquaintances, landings and take-offs are flown manually. Where the autopilot pays off is in normal flying. It does a better job than most pilots. Disclosure: I hold every type of air and ground license issued by the FAA. I was an instructor pilot for more than 20 years. I still retain my interest in aviation albeit from row 38.
I doubt we will every see driver less cars, trucks, etc. But we will see computer controlled vehicles that will improve traffic flow and reduce the probability of accidents. This strikes me as a potential winner.
What impact automation of alternate modes of transport will have on the railroads remains to be seen. My guess is the railroads will adjust to it if given the freedom to do so.
Couple of points. Norm ask your pilot friend if he has ever heard the story regarding some of the “Glass Cockpits” in the newer(then) aircraft.
. Some years back among some acquaintances in the pilot business. There was a story circulating, referencing the then new, ‘glass cockpits’ which required three in the cockpit. Each one with their own job specialization. "…The Pilot whose job it was to program the aircraft computers with the necessary flight data. The co-pilot, whose job was to make sure the ‘;Catering was ordered, and correct’.Third position was a very large dog;…whose job it was to sit between the two; if either man was to touch the controls while the plane was powered up…The dog was to bite the offe
And the situation does not seem to be getting any better…ON either side of “The Line!”
Seems more and more that our industry is changing[:-,], And TOFC, is apparently, more and more of an answer.
Definitely, one way to keep the new breed of drive home on week-ends; while constantly,“Through the house![|(] Seems as if the Company Recruiters are sure aiming at the 'low hanging fruit.” [X-)]
Many of those’ new’ to the trucking game, have not learned that 'when the wheels ain’t turning you ain’t earning"…[C):-)]
Random acts of cats, mice, cars or nuts are quite a moot point as far as grade crossings are concerned. No train operator can stop a train in time to prevent a tragedy. Just today a bus and a train went to conclusions in Ontario. What could the operators do?
Watch the SubChat forum, not four days goes by but what there is another report of a 12-9 on the subway.
12-9 is a radio call for “passenger under train”. Usually they jump there just before the train comes in, sometimes they are pushed, sometimes they have a medical issue, and sometimes they are just lost drunks. Some survive, most do not. All of those trains are operated by a train operator. (Well not the (L) train, that is automated) but the randoms are equally squished.
NYCT is an Equal Squish railroad.
ERGO: 1) my cats do not LIKE coming into the house, let alone up to the train room, 2) No NYCT subway has any grade crossings and still can kill 80 people per year, and 3) Automation IS coming, and we will be just fine.
Probably 45 years ago, GM built a new test track at their Michigan proving grounds. Perfectly round, it’s a mile and a half in diameter.
The bottom two lanes (IIRC) had guidance wires laid into the concrete. When paired with a sensor on the front of the vehicle, a car (or theoretically a truck) could run around the track ad infinitum (or until it ran out of fuel).
Such a technology applied in today’s world could add GPS and satellite comms for managing a vehicle, but would require the infrastructure (a wire laid into a lane) to be installed anywhere it was to be used.
It might even be desirable to establish restricted lanes (or build same) for the “unmanned” traffic.
Unless there was a method for circumventing/bypassing slow or stopped traffic, however, one failure (breakdown) would tie up everything until the problem was resolved. Given the recent description of I-81 as being “owned” by trucks, the magnitude of such a failure can be appreciated.
And, as has been suggested, that doesn’t deal with stuff like deer running into the road (very common on I-81 in NY and PA).
“Ulrich, your comments on aviation remind me of the crash of the French plane in the Atlantic a few years ago. As I recall, there was something mentioned about the speed sensors icing up, and I’m wondering if lack of seat-of-the-pants experience by the crew might have been a factor.”
The final French BEA (equivalent of our NTSB) report indicated that was indeed the case. When the pito tubes (sensors for airspeed indication) iced over the computers, sensing improper airspeed commanded the airplane to climb. The result was an aerodynamic stall that the pilots couldn’t recover from. They had become so used to the automation they couldn’t control the plane under those conditions.