Empire Builder is on the ground in Montana with three dead and 50 injured

[CSSHEGEWISCH]

Tasmania is a separate island and is also one of six states in the Commonwealth of Australia.

[Euclid]

I speculate that if they had any idea why the train derailed, we would be hearing about it. The full report will probably be available in two years, but it is not unusual to have some idea of cause almost immediately. And there will be a preliminary report in a few weeks. Often the cause is self-evident when the accident occurs. Or it is at least partly so, as in the case of a train upsetting from overspeed through a curve, but not knowing the reason for the overspeed.

In this case, however, the investigators seem to be stumped. If a car truck had collapsed or broke an axle, they would find that right away. They also have their clues and witness marks to tell them the story, and yet they are drawing a blank. How hard can it be? The train was running at high speed and all at once, it went on the ground for no known reason.

A sun kink has been considered, and its effect is visually obvious. But, there is the question of whether the damage caused by a sun kink would be evident if the sun kink caused a derailment.

This is because like sun kinks, derailments often tear up track, plow up the ballast, and bend rails in large bows. If a sun kink caused a derailment, the derailment damage would be added to the sun kink damage, and both damage results would look similar. Or more specifically, the obvious damage inflicted by a sun kink would likely blend into the damage caused by the derailment.

In all the news coverage, I have yet to see a meaningful photograph tha

[7j43k]

If you were to take this to the extreme - say, if you welded the base of the rail to a plate cast into a concrete tie - then the track structure would act more like a rigid frame and less like two separate rails, and then you would get vertical buckling before you got horizontal buckling. Which is to say, you would never get either kind of buckling. What you would get is a whole lot of cracked concrete ties - you need to isolate the concrete from the rails to prevent the concrete from breaking under the impact loads of a train going over.

Dan

I suspect sucessful railroad track is finely balanced between rigidity and flexibility, similar to a wood-frame house in an earthquake zone.

(A structural engineer suggested NOT making a certain wall in this house rigid, for that reason.)

Ed

[zugmann]

Silly NTSB investigators. Trains.com detectives solved this one in 48 hours!

[7j43k]

Ed,

I agree with your synopsis and coverage of the Australian sun kink…

I tried finding an accident report or at least more data, and didn’t come up with much (except that bit about the containers being overweight).

I don’t see the event as “sun kink”. I see it as a track maintenance failure with likely excess stress on the track, by speed and/or weight.

Note that the trailing flats appeared to stay on the track, and wiggled on through.

Ed

[7j43k]

Here’s an interesting photo showing the siding. I do agree it needs work:

I also detected a dip in the rail underneath the second wheel on the lead unit.

Here’s another:

It’s a CTC siding, by the way.

Sun kinks?

Ed

[SD70Dude]

A slight dip in the rails underneath anything heavy is normal.

The effects of a telephoto lens often make this look worse in photos than it actually is.

Regardless of the cause of this derailment, the equipment’s behaviour and number of injuries and fatalities is very similar to this VIA derailment from 1997.

https://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-reports/rail/1997/r97h0009/r97h0009.html

[7j43k]

A slight dip in the rails underneath anything heavy is normal.

I’m sure. How come it’s only under one of the wheels?

Ed

[diningcar]

My old eyes cannot detect this dip, Perhaps you are correct and the NTSB will elabor ate.

[rdamon]

My old eyes cannot detect this dip, Perhaps you are correct and the NTSB will elabor ate.

I feel better now [:)] I could not see it as well.

[SD70Dude]

SD70Dude

A slight dip in the rails underneath anything heavy is normal.

I’m sure. How come it’s only under one of the wheels?

Looks pretty even to me. The track in the photos looks as good or better than our mainline.

You may be surprised to learn that ballast is not finely placed, tamped and groomed on a daily basis, and small imperfections are ok.

Track is an industrial thoroughfare, not a Japanese rock garden…

[7j43k]

I put a straightedge underneath the rails, and found that one spot. If y’all think it’s not there, or is inconsequential, I can live with that.

Track is an industrial thoroughfare, not a Japanese rock garden…

It’s not even that, when there’s a train on the ground.

Ed

[Euclid]

The following post has been edited for clarification 10/3/21:

NTSB says they have not ruled out any cause, including human error. Two causes have been speculated by various experts in the field.

The one cause that has suggested in the most detail is a track buckle caused by heat. It has been characterized as being the “most likely explanation.” It was said that this derailment has all the “earmarks” of having been caused by track buckle caused by heat. The experts also described those earmarks and how they fit the details of this derailment.

[7j43k]

NTSB says they have not ruled out any cause, including human error. But they have said little about what causes would be possible. Only two causes have been speculated by them.

The one that NTSB suggested in the most detail is a track buckle caused by heat. They said that is the “most likely explanation.” They said this derailment has all the “earmarks” of that cause. They also described those earmarks and how they fit this derailment.

Could you please supply a link to those statements?

Ed

[Euclid]

Here is the link:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/27/amtrak-derailment-montana-under-investigation-three-people-killed/5886070001/

[7j43k]

Thank you for providing the link for your source.

NTSB (“They”) were not quoted as saying the “most likely explanation” was heat. THAT was attributed to Russ Quimby, a former NTSB employee.

The ONLY things NTSB (Landsberg) stated was:

“We have experts that are studying the camera footage frame by frame to make sure that we see exactly what the engineer saw–or maybe didn’t see,…”

In reference to ties stacked nearby on the side of the tracks: “That will be one of the questions that we look at, maintenance will be a really big concern for us. We don’t know, at this point, exactly what happened, whether it was a track issue, whether it was a mechanical issue with the train. So all of these things are open.”

The NTSB did not “suggest” a heat problem. There is NO comment about heat in the above quotes. Nor did the article attribute any such thing to the NTSB or one of their employees.

The NTSB at NO TIME said anything about a heat problem in the above linked source. I cannot understand why you would mis-attribute these things. It brings into question everything you assert.

You do sloppy work. And you should be ashamed of it.

Ed

[Euclid]

Ed,

Yes, you are correct. The information I cited was not on behalf of the NTSB, but rather by apparently qualified experts commenting on the investigation seeking the cause of the wreck. I don’t expect the NTSB to have any comment prior to their announcing the results of their preliminary investigation in a few weeks or so.

Regarding your point about questioning everything I assert, I recommend that we all question everything that is asserted.

[charlie_hebdo]

Sloppy misattributions designed to lend more authority to speculations.

[7j43k]

I cannot understand why you would mis-attribute these things. It brings into question everything you assert.

You do sloppy work. And you should be ashamed of it.

Ed,

Yes, you are correct.

[Euclid]

7j43k

I cannot understand why you would mis-attribute these things. It brings into question everything you assert.

You do sloppy work. And you should be ashamed of it.

Euclid

Ed,

Yes, you are correct.

Get over it.