While I can still occasionally find bargains on the InterBays, I noticed prices inching up at trains shows each year between roughly 2005 and 2019. I used to be able to find vintage cars in excellent shape for very cheap. In more recent years at train shows, I have been buying fewer things, but spending more per piece.
I don’t know if this is a reflection of prices increasing, or simply that as I’ve accumulated more, the things I still don’t have are pricey.
What is your experience?
I’m not in that market, but I do see more inquiries here and on other boards about the older products. I would guess that, during the latest ‘upset’, people who suddenly find they have a lot of time on their hands, and who wax nostalgic, want to get their hands on things that brought them pleasure in less heady times. That would raise the prices.
By vintage, I suppose you mean stuff like old freight car kits? Wooded building kits? etc.
I’m not in that market either, never have been.
I think Selector nailed it.
Mike.
Could also be a function of supply and demand. As time passes; vintage in good shape becomes rarer, and thus, more expensive.
Well, there’s that, but I was seeing this trend over about 12 or 15 years, pre-pandemic.
Yes, but even things like 1950s yellow-box Athearns, with sprung trucks, and older Mantua Tyco, when they had metal frames, before they became the cheap glossy plastic toys associated with later Tyco. I could find these in excellent shape at one time for $3 a throw, but they became much more expensive in recent years, at least at the shows I’ve attended. Granted, there are always bargains, but these seem to be fewer and farther between in my experience.
There was time I could buy low end (Athearn, Mantua, and the like) HO freight cars for $3 apiece at train shows. Not any more. They are asking at least $5 and a lot of times $10. And we are talking about kitbash “project” cars. Like needing a paint job, decals, some brake rigging underneath, some wire grabs, a load, Kadee couplers, whatever. I buy them 'cause I like doing kitbash projects, not that I think I am saving money.
Very interesting points.
Regarding scale models, at least, the definition for the term “Vintage” is age 40 and over. So basically 1970’s and before.
I lurk on ebay and I have seen some vintage and slightly newer items increase slightly in opening bid prices, including the 1950’s-60’s era kits. But not by much. I remember seeing some of the older common Athearn BB and Roundhouse freight cars selling in the $3.00 to $8.00 range. Now I see them in the $12 to $15 range, in good condition. Imho, adjusting for inflation and demand that’s still not bad. Of course, the kicker comes in with shipping in the $8 to $15 range.
For vintage structures, Tyco and Bachmann kits are still available in the “teens” price range. Amzaingly, some of those old structures are excellent starters for detailing and weathering to realistic levels, without having to empty a wallet.
Respectfully, when an item like a 1960’s (shortt) Athearn “rubber band” drive RDC opens at $50, my jaw does drop open because Proto 1000 RDC’s, which are more accurate and equipped with a heavier chasiss and much better drive, can be found in that same price range on ebay and at MRR flea markets. I passed one up for $35 that I had considered re-painting(metalizing) to a fictional road name.
But, overall, it’s the old adage of doing your homework while shopping. Decent deals are still available but you have to be willing to spend the additional time hunting for them. I admit that when it comes to passenger cars, I’ll spend a while hunting for Rivs and Walthers units that I’ll plan to strip and repaint. My simple approach is to hunt for the type of car I want that’s in the least popular paint scheme as it will usually have a low starting bid.
Inflation is one part of it. Some of these sellers need to make more per item than they used to for it to be worth their time to sell it. Individuals getting rid of a personal collection might still have some freight cars and items in the $3 to $5 range, but anyone doing this as a business can’t afford to go too cheap anymore.
A lot of these things that used to be cheap are also becoming more scarce with time, and that also drives prices up. Keep looking around though, and you can still find some very good deals!
I started working in a hobby shop in 1970, when many of the products in question here were still on the “new” market, and some others were not considered that old.
Today it really depends on your interests and modeling style. I have lots of “vintage” HO, and there is a lot of it I would not have on my layout.
I’m selective, I don’t “collect” it or maintain its original appearance or condition. I will weather an Athearn metal kit from the 50’s just as fast as sometihng made last week.
And I do upgrades and add additional details to many of the older models I find acceptable.
Many I have owned for a long time, others I have aquired along the way, mostly at shows or a few shops I know that deal in that sort of stuff.
I have posted pictures on here of unbuilt 50’s and 60’s kits that I have. They will be built to my requirements, again with no concern for their “history”.
I find prices to be all over the map, and I am someone likely to pay as little more for the more “perfect” pieces.
You will not find me even slowing down for the soda carton full of unboxed freight cars at the train show. If it has been handled/treated like that, I don’t want it.
I’m looking for those “practically untouched” pieces, still in their original boxes. Not becuase of any “collector value”, just becuase I want stuff in good condition, not messed around with…
So, I pay more, for the best of the best of what was out there in 1950, or 1960, or 1970.
And it runs right along side my brand new RTR this or that, or the resin kits I build, or the high detail kits like Proto, Branchline and Intermountain and the present day “Athearn blue box” grade products. Because not every piece of rolling stock needs to be a museum piece, they just need to be reasonably representitive.
Prices - supply, demand, opportunity and desire to be rid, are always the con
Shock Control)
In partial answer to your question, just last night (1/9/2021 - HNY! btw) i took a screenshot of a ‘sale’ off of one of the ‘interbays’ of a standard no frills Tyco Ho Train set that is definately of ‘Vintage’ designation - just because of its price.
To put it in a dollar amount - instead of the IRS sending out those $1200 checks, they could have sent you a 40yr old used train set instead.
I wont explain WHY the price increased, I only answer your question, has it?
… oh [symbols removed by moderator] YEAH it has!
Green Lights!
PMR
Thanks all for the replies!
A lot of stuff is much cheaper now. Prices of kits has gone way down, brass is way down, some RTR cars vare way up. So it really depends on the item. I have never been able to buy FSM kits for the prices I can pay everyday for. I see a lot of people confuse what is being offered and sold prices. Also there are those that will pay too much or get a steal.
At first, i thought this was [(-D] because since when did Warner Brothers themed charactors for bad words become bad words themselves so much so someone had to spray paint over them.
Then I thought, wait a minute, this makes it look worse, like i said something really bad. Gee thanks, it meant less my way. Have to rethink my next Ka-Boom! or Ka-Blam! before i just whip them out there! [(-D][(-D]
I promise i will be more Eeyore than Yosemite Sam from now on.
PMR
I think it is partly a generational thing. As entire eras of modelers leave the hobby for whatever reason (death being just one of them), stuff from each era gets more or less dumped onto the used market. That’s how, when I first got into HO, I had a bunch of paper sided freight cars from 20 and more years earlier, and some “first generation” metal Mantua steamers. Over time this stuff gets thinned out as more of it gets tossed rather than resold.
Also, when Athearn walked away from the Blue Box line there was so much of it out there – new and unsold on hobby shop shelves, new and unbuilt on modeler railroader’s shelves – not only did prices remain cheap (because the stuff had been cheap when new) but the selection was nearly as broad as it always had been. There was a glut. That glut has been chipped away at now. And DCC played a role in the glut as well.
A third factor is access to swap meets, train shows, and hobby shops with shelves of “previously enjoyed” model trains. Go to enough of those and even if you are uninterested in the stuff you get a pretty clear notion about what the going rate is or can be for stuff. But many of our colleagues on this Forum say there are no swap meets, train shows, or train stores where they are. Who’s to say what’s cheap or too expensive in that situation.
I do know that a buddy who is very adept at and familiar with Ebay is often asked to help sell off estate collections in return for a % of the take. Even after all these years he is amazed at the results – whether really nice stuff selling for low prices, or broken and damaged stuff he was willing to nearly give away creating a bidding war and selling for way too much money. Auctions whether live or online create their own psychology.
Dave Nelson
While we didn’t have any train shows in this area last year due to the virus situation, there have always been large amounts of that “vintage” stuff at pretty well all of the shows I’ve attended in the past.
A lot of it is “new”, but at prices considerably above what they would have been when they were manufactured.
There’s usually a lot of the same stuff, but “used” - some is junk, and some is in almost new condition, and some of it has been upgraded, perhaps with better details or maybe custom paint and lettering. The prices are all over the place, as the sellers are often a friend or relative of the original owner, who has passed away. Some have a good idea of the true value, others seem to think that if it’s old, it must be the equivalent of an antique, and worth a bundle.
I usually take a look at this sort of stuff, but if it’s not a reasonable price for what’s offered, I simply walk away.
I already have a great deal of that so-called “vintage” stuff on my layout, most of it with improved details and custom paint and lettering.
I also have a full inventory of my locos and rolling stock, all with suggested prices spelled-out for a couple of good friends who have agreed to sell it after I’ve “left the building”. Both say that the prices are too low (they get to pick what they want for free), but I’ve pointed out to both that the idea is to get rid of the stuff, more than it is to make money.
Whatever’s left can be donated or simply dumped…it will make no difference to me.
I have a few items from the '50s in-use on my layout, and a few more such items in a box that just don’t fit in. I’d give them away rather than rip-off someone who has no idea of their value…which is little.
Wayne
Trouble with e-bay now is too many people putting higher vstart prices, used to be if you started less than $1 you got a big break in fees, not any longer.
The used model railroad market is hard to figure out. I’ve been selling off most of my “vintage” stuff for years. In my experience, most of the buyers for vintage stuff are like me, OLD. They aren’t adding to their collection. Many are leaving for that big layout in the sky, causing a glut of the old items on the market. The younger generation doesn’t want to devote the time to build the old kits. My wife and I found the same situation in our antique and collectable business. Items that were very saleable now are destined for the thirft store or the dumpster.
I don’t know the answer to the OP’s question, and one would have to track a good sized sample yearly over the past ten years. Unless you do that, you won’t get an answer worth taking seriously.
But my impression is that the worth of vintage items can be fickle, and only as much as someone is willing to pay. You may see some vintage items sell for relatively high prices, but that could be an artifact of something ephemeral.
Certainly if one is gambling on making money off of vintage items, you could very well be disappointed. Or you might get lucky. Are you feeling lucky? (voice of Dirty Harry). Well are you?
But seriously, yes, the pandemic may be affecting fleabay prices for “now” as many have too much time isloating at home and browse the web for stuff to buy. I expect in time that may change.
But I’ve noticed over the past ten years at train shows vintage models and kits have been plenty abundant as many bought them years ago and never had time or motivation to build them, and later dumped them on the secondary market. That is probably the real long term trend and would tend to devalue those things, in general.
When comparing prices over time you always have to deduct ordinary inflation. Even 2% per annum is more than 20% over a decade (it’s a compounded rate).
Anything older than 30 years requires a significant deduction to arrive at any rational price comparison over time.
If you do this for gold, oil or real estate it’s a real eye opener about the time value of cash. Not good.
Brass locomotives are currently at bargain prices except for the fact that modern models are now superior in so many ways. It’s not a surprise, objectively.
Prices for 90’s vintage locomotives might seem a little high but really it’s just inflation creating the illusion of increased price. Real constant dollar pricing reveals this stuff is at bargain pricing especially if really NIB or NOS. The original buyer has lost half the original cost on resale at current inflated prices.