Yes, but I try to avoid anything from the dented item shelf…
Agreed. And I think this is keeping to the topic, because the point is, it’s not so simple as saying you should expect the price of things to increase by about 2%, or whatever they say inflation is, per year.
The car is a good example… if memory serves, the price of a decent new car, auto and A/C and power windows, has been a bit under $20k for at least a couple decades, despite the fact that inflation is happening and cars are generally getting nicer and better. Electronics, obviously, are an even more obvious example of things not inflating in price; computers, phones*, etc just keep getting cheaper while also getting more capable.
On the other hand, other things have gotten way more expensive. House prices in my section of the country have been skyrocketing for years. 20 years ago, median price for a detached house was $150k. “Inflation” would put that at $213k today. It passed $550k a year ago, and now since covid is over $700k.
Given that this is by far the most money that the average person will spend on anything, it rather overshadows the price changes on everything else IMO.
So yeah I guess the point of this post is, don’t assume that prices for things should obey “inflation”
Inflation is very real.
Inflation is a general rise in prices reflecting an excess in the money supply actually required to facilitate every transaction an economy requires at an instant in time.
Deflation is also very real and very dangerous.
While inflation affects all prices, by definition and strictly speaking it’s the reverse, not all prices increase.
Productivity gains lower prices of whatever is produced more cost effectively. Productivity gains accrue to labour absent non-free market forces, as Modigliani proved decades ago. This is why labour costs keep rising in efficient economies and why politicians cannot reverse these effects no matter what they try to do.
I think it is pretty obvious that model railroading stuff has been getting cheaper. But I haven’t tried to prove it much less try to estimate the effect. The main driver has been higher quality and more sophisticated DCC systems with no corresponding increases in pricing.
Only really good quality used stuff is holding value and even now unobtainable as new models aren’t appreciating in price. Older DCC locomotives just aren’t worth paying anything extra for over and above DC ready.
To what extent is eBay to blame? Early on, I got involved in auctions for used stuff, and soon realized that I was overpaying BECAUSE I WANTED IT!
Train show prices can still be reasonable, like the clearance shelves at the LHS or the Walthers Flyer sales.
Oh yeah, me too.
I have sure overpaid for used items here and there because I simply had to have them. This is especially true when an item comes up that has been impossible to find for several years.
I just recently paid a relatively high Buy It Now price for NMRA Heritage Collection #14, Bob Hegge’s CROOKED MOUNTAIN LINES just because I have only ever seen it for sale once before.
-Kevin
-Kevin
I think a couple of things have been happening. The costs for dealers to take stuff to shows, and/or the costs to sell on Ebay have gone up significantly. As a result, the asking price for items has gone up as well. But the real value is determined when you go to sell, not buy. And I haven’t seen the actual return on average stuff I sell go up much, if at all. In 2019, I saw a lot of show dealers taking home their cheap stuff - they just couldn’t sell it at the inflated asking price.
I expect when the new normal occurs, prices will actually go down, as has already happened in 3 rail O. There are fewer and fewer model railroaders in acquisition mode, and there are definitely fewer collectors for HO brass or post-war Lionel O. It reminds me very much of 2005 and 2006 when everybody in the real estate business was trying to keep prices up in the face of declining demand. Eventually, things collapsed, and a lot of money was lost from 2007 - 2014 in most of the country. Prices for the more common HO brass engines and used recent high end plastic are already declining despite ads and postings from sellers trying to make you believe otherwise. The demand is softer than sellers would like you to believe.
In 2019, I would go around a couple of hours before the end of the show, and I was able to get Tyco/AHM 19th Century cars for $3-$4 each. NIB Roundhouse Old Timer kits were $7 each. Of course, they end up costing the same as a Labelle kit by the time paint, decals, trucks, couplers, and improved details are added on. Point is the dealer couldn’t sell them - there’s probably all of 50 19th Century modelers in the country that attend train shows - for his starting price at the beginning of the show. I ignore ridiculous Ebay buy it now - and many of them are.
I told my bride that if she outlasts me, just plan on putting the cars in a “free” box in the driveway or donating to Salvatio
The one thing that will rise prices is when a company goes away, but it always goes down again. One of the recent ones is Jordan, the price of cars and trucks went way up and went higher when we learned no one was allowed to buy the company, well prices for most are back down now.