Figure there is a three and a half year window of opportunity.
You got that right.
“We don’t need no f***ing (antitrust) laws!”
I don’t know. In Trrump’s first term there was no real merger talk. (I forget when, but according to some railroad analysts they thought conditions were favorable for some major consolidations.
It didn’t happen.) The carrier’s didn’t try to force one person crews. I was surprised that they didn’t try with a business friendly administration. The thought was the carrier’s weren’t sure where that administration’s sentiment was. That maybe they wouldn’t get what they wanted, but something worse.
The window for mergers might be open. Or it might not. There would have to be buy-in from the major shippers. The general thought, especially among my coworkers is that the carrier’s have politicians wrapped around their little finger. Yes, maybe for some things. But for their deep pockets, major shippers combined have deeper ones.
I think the real reason some might be thinking merger is because of PSR. PSR, despite what’s said, isn’t exactly a recipe to foster growth. They all talk about growth, but actual growth doesn’t seem to be happening much. If you can’t grow, than you need to wring out every penny (I guess with the seemingly imminent demise of the penny, it will be every nickle.) you can. They are running out of places to cut. They need to merge to have more places to “increase efficiencies.” That is, more places to make cuts. That was the reasoning when EHH was at CPRS and proposed merger with NS, or CSX - I forget which.
Another consideration could be about CEOs. There could be some vacancies that could reduce ego effect on negotiations.
No matter, I won’t be surprised if any merger proposals do or do not happen.
Jeff
No mergers are being approved unless something is given in return. That message already went out, in my opinion.
Likely so. The FTC and DOJ are enmeshed in politics. The new head of the FTC, Andrew Ferguson, has stated intentions to ease his predecessor’s scrutiny of business mergers and acquisitions, while continuing critical oversight of big tech platforms.(Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia]