Has a study ever been done as to just how many MR’s there are in North America?? someone must have an approximate idea, would model makers have access to the figure? I could not even come close to assuming an estimate, is it in the thousands??? hundreds of thousands??? How would a person go about getting a relatively close estimate, lets hear from some of you MBA on marketing out there.
A study like that would probably have to be done similar to a census count. There are lots of model railroaders who almost never go public. I’m one of the few in this area who have gone public. I know of at least fifteen others who have never as much as ordered a MR mag. They buy it at Wal-Mart. And only one of them goes online at all, and he’s a kid.
There’s gotta be at least a dozen.
Count me in. That makes 13.
Did you see me raising my hand? I know there’s one at my house!
Lee
One has to employ some care in first defining the term “model railroader” if they wish an honest figure of their number. Some will include everyone who has ever made even a one time purchase of something like a Tyco train set at Christmastime, or dabbles at the level of occasionally forming a simple circle of snap-track on the kitchen table and running a train, or even those who never do anything more than read about model trains but these are hardly realistic numbers.
On occasion, industry PR releases go even further afield and imply a million such consumers. However, they are obviously including purchases made for every possible reason, from Uncle Joe buying a wooden Thomas for his 2 year old nephew, to the little old blue-haired lady adding some minor item to her Dept. 56 Christmas village.
More realistically, if one accepts that there is at least some measure of cross-over buying in magazine circulations, then there are probably less than 250,000 individuals who are interested enough in the hobby to account for all the model railroading magazines (of all types) sold in the U.S.A. on even a semi-regular basis.
Similarly, Model Railroader magazine, in its published evaluations of the hobby, offered over the course of many years, has never claimed that the hobby likely encompass more than a quarter million individuals (highest in 1989, less since)…and often admitted that a considerable segment of these were basically armchair hobbyists, not actually modelers.
If only those who actually have built something in the way of a viable layout (beyond simply a loop of track on bare plywood) are considered as fitting into the category in question, then the number must be dramatically smaller yet, likely well under 100,000 and concievably only half that many.
CNJ831
I couldn’t raise my hand earlier because my fingers were super glued to my work bench.
I think the model railroading population is in a serious decline, CNJ831, because the amount of people who buy Tyco train sets has fell drastically. I don’t think an average Joe has even so much as looked at a new Tyco train set at any store in years. My LHS won’t even order the new Tyco GEVO!
As I mentioned in this blog post, a 2007 posting on the World’s Greatest Hobby site put the number of model railroaders at 500,000 in the US and suggested the market size as $500 Million.
Since our favorite prophets of doom are setting up residence on this thread, this will be my last post to it. But as I mention in my own blog post, there’s plenty of empirical evidence to indicate that many segments of the hobby are doing well, from the entrance of new manufacturers to the dizzying rate of new model introduction.
According to the World’s Greatest Hobby site:
Today: There are about 500,000 model railroaders and toy train hobbyists in the U.S. and Canada. Model trains are especially popular in England, Germany, Australia, and Japan. The World’s Greatest Hobby campaign is launched to promote all aspects of model railroading.
There’s also a good discussion of magazine circulation numbers across a lot of hobbies over on the Atlas forum.
Today with the internet in full swing, I have to question the reliability of using only magazine circulation numbers to estimate hobby numbers. For instance, my operating crew regulars include some 12 or so modelers, out of which maybe two still subscribe to MR. Most now just use the internet to get their modeling info and may pick up an issue now and then from the hobb
It seems to me that the bigger question is “what IS a model railroader?” Some are not modelers, but are railfans - accounting for some of the magazine circulation. Some are railroad employees who buy Trains, Railfan, etc, to keep up on their profession. Some are “seasonal” modelers who set up for Christmas - I have a friend who does a huge set-up around the Christmas tree from mid-November to mid- February or longer. Some buy the mags regularly and mentally plan that dream layout that may, or may not, ever be. Some are collectors - and that can range from a few inexpensive models that strike their “fancy”, to thousands of dollars worth of brass that will never see track other than the shelf it’s on. Some are on and off modelers - “I’ve just gotten back into the hobby after XXX years”. Personally, I’ve been more of a collector of UP stuff, even though I’ve had at least five “layouts” - at least one of which got about 80% scenicked before the divorce!! It’s like asking who’s a car enthusiast - the guy who polishes his car every Saturday, or Jay Leno, who owns a few hundred thousand dollars worth!! My [2c]
[#ditto]How can you get an accurate count from magazine sales? I don’t buy the same magazine every month and I’m sure I’m not the only one. There are at least a dozen model RR publications and at least that many different type of “modelers”. It’s like trying to get an accurate count on a flock of starlings in flight. Model railroading is a form of entertainment for most people and their involvement hinges on so many factors like: kids, job, economy, moving, etc.
I wasn’t trying to be doom and gloom earlier just a futile attempt at ridiculous humor. But, I bet nobody reading or who has responded this thread has looked at a “new Tyco train set” in quite some time.
I had heard an estimate of 3-5 million world wide but I don’t remember where?? (maybe Tracks Ahead)
20…25… something like that [:-^]
Okay, here’s some hard facts:
April 14, 2008. The Hobby Manufacturers Association Board of Directors has just released the findings of the 2007 Size of the U.S. Model Hobby Industry Study which was conducted in the fall of 2007.
“2007 model hobby product sales are estimated to be $1.274 billion with actual 2006 sales of $1.192
billion,” announced Frank Ritota, HMA President. The estimated sales in the individual product segments are:
- Plastic & Die Cast $259,100,000 20.3%
- Model Railroad $409,500,000 32.1%
- Radio Control $357,900,000 28.0%
- General Hobbies $247,600,000 19.4%
If CNJ’s estimate of 100,000 active model railroaders was accurate, then the average active model railroader would spend over $4000 per year on the hobby – or about $340 per month. I’m a pretty avid modeler, and I don’t spend that much a month on the hobby on average – so 100,000 modelers is clearly too low.
Using the WGH numbers would mean the average modeler spends just under $100 per month on the hobby – that sounds much more realistic.
I think I see some of how the WGH guys got their number, and it sounds reasonable when you look at the industry sales for 2007.
Also note the overall sales figures for modeling in all forms grew from 2006 to 2007. It would be interesting to see the sales figures adjusted for inflation … [swg]
Well, let’s see. Adding up all the model railroading magazine figures (didn’t include Hobby Outlook since it’s not a pure mr mag) we get 476643. Then we figure the folks who buy/subscribe to more than one magazine are offset by the folks who buy/subscribe to none but read the library copy, friends copy, get their information from the internet, etc. Then we take Model Railroader’s circulation at its peak when every hobbyist purchased MR each month, this was about 225000 around 1990. Subtracting this from 476643 gives us 251643 new hobbyists since 1990. Dividing this by the number of years since 1990 gives us an annual growth rate of 13,980 hobbyists. From this I conclude the hobby is growing at a very healthy rate and we should continue to see many more new products each year as the manufacturer’s strive to meet the ever increasing demand.
The Golden Age of the Hobby is now.
Paul
Hi Joe,
Interesting data, thanks for sharing! Lets make it easier, is the hobby of model railroading growing, flat or shrinking?
I remember your previous remarks on that aspect about a year or so ago, that the hobby was at best flat or shrinking. Do you still hold that view? Certainly correct me, if my recollection is flawed.
Best regards,
Joe Daddy
I got the “hobby’s flat” info from a conversation I had with an NMRA board member in 2006 at a meet.
If the media is to be believed, they’re saying interest in model trains is on the rise again. I don’t know if that’s so or not – it could just be the media following on the coat tails of the Polar Express movie buzz, which is dying out now.
I do know among my regular operators of 12 or so, maybe half of them are under 40 and one or two of them are in their 20s. Most of the rest of us are in their 40s, 50s, or 60s. One member is in his 80s!
I also know the NMRA Teen Model Railroaders organization is still going, and every couple of op sessions or so, someone will bring a teen along to operate. I notice there’s a model railroading group on MySpace with hundreds of members, most of whom are under 40, and one of the largest eBay sections is the model railroading section (it can’t just be sellers, because sellers with no buyers would get old fast).
So I can’t speak definitively, but the internet seems to have given a new lease on life to all niche hobbies, and the hobby business is seeing new releases at a rate that makes what I remember in the 1960s and 70s pale by comparison. So somebody’s buying this stuff – and the hobby sales numbers indicate it’s probably closer to 500,000 people who on average spend almost $100 per month on model train stuff … so it’s at least flat, with slightly growing not unreasonable given the industry sales.
Hard facts regarding what? Certainly not actual model railroader numbers. How does the claim that $409,500,000 was spent on “model railroad” products correlate with it being spent only by model railroaders? Does the purchase of innumerable items for children under 10 validate them as true model railroaders? Are those that simply purchase items for their display, or simply to have them as a collection, make
Well, let’s hope this doesn’t self-destruct.
