I think the reality is that the Federal Government is going to be reducing it’s contribution to Amtrak more in favor of periodic grants. I think the future here might be in multi-state rail compacts. The definition of a true rail compact is one that funds it’s own rail equipment pool and Amtrak is essentially a legal operator only and does maintenence on the equipment. We have a Midwest compact already, California does not need one but is effectively it’s own compact. We should build more compacts especially among the plains states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana) possibly (Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado). Texas could be it’s own like California. By grouping states together the rail passenger funding burden does not get to a level where it will never happen and it opens up possibilities. Two state compacts together to fund a LD overight train that spans both compact states. Federal government could give block grants to the state compacts for improvements or new train experimentation.
There is also some flexibility in this model in that two multi-state compacts could lease equipment back and forth as needs arose and/or share equipment pools or costs.
I still think, though, that a couple of the proposed Ohio corridor details are best provided ‘at Federal level’ and not as grants, especially (as I think would be likely) grants with conditions or milestones that require work to be completed to political standards before payment is released.
The new Ohio service would be built out with national Amtrak money, and the government accepts the costs while the take rate of the service – perhaps including faster improvements or more frequent service – comes up to speed. In the Ohio proposal, that timeframe is 5 years… after which it is presumed that Ohio or any other ‘venture partners’ assume the cost of the corridor service.
I don’t see regional compacts solving concerns where one region reaps a significant benefit for a minimum number of route-miles – the ABE service to Manhattan and the proposed HSR via Milwaukee and Madison service into Chicago being two prospective ones. The ARC Tunnel development fell apart over a perception that this issue would occur to New Jersey’s significant financial liability.
Mentioning Montana: As previously mentioned on the Forums, a Montana group is working to restore what was the North Coast Hiawatha. (Now called Big Sky Cooridor.) There is a bill in the Montana Legislature to use some of the car rail tax funds to fund passenger trains in Montana.
One possible place where this arrangement could function and hopefully be independent of too much political meddling would be the states in the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic from Maine to NC. These governments already support passenger rail and could help underwrite Amtrak, since the NEC is at the center of it all.
If the feds cut Amtrak, then they are certainly going to cut grants that help state corridors. Additionally the feds are cutting all sorts of funds to states, like Medicaid, etc. The states will be so short of funds to cover basic services, that even established corridors will be starved for funds. In today’s NewsWire there was an article about Phily’s SEPTA being over $200 million in the red already.
With respect to the reanimation of the North Coast Hiawatha, the line between Butte and Bozeman is out of service. This has a plus in that Helena would be served, but Deer Lodge, Anaconda and Butte would not. Great Falls would also be left out.
I’m not sure if there would be much in the way of traffic east of Billings. Back in the early 70’s, the Miles City Star was reporting boardings on the NCH and the numbers were usually low single digits.
Considering the plan, in conjunction with other states, is to have it running from Chicago to the coast, anything is possible. The actual route is still under discussion. One never knows what the ridership might be.
Wisconsin is well set though. It got it’s large rail projects funded the last one in October of 2024. Also, not sure I agree with you about the Federal Grants, time will tell but there is always political horse trading. Nobody is entirely bound by idealogy in our system.
Doesn’t SEPTA have a history of financial issues going back a ways?
SEPTA like many transit systems had money problems since the pandemic, but the feds covered the shortfall. That source is drying up. SEPTA is trying to get the funds from the State of PA, but PA Senate isn’t buying, according to the NewsWire article.
FYI: Ohio just joined the Midwest High Speed rail pact but on the minimalist cheap subscription plan of only paying $25k a year. Would be more impressive if they set aside capital funds for the equipment pool or spent some money on state rail upgrades within the state. I suspect they are trying to get the Chicago to Detroit trains extended to Toledo. We’ll see. More states should join the Midwest compact like Iowa and Indiana to plug holes in it.
A slight worry. Could Doggie try to completely shut down Amtrak with no notice. It is happening at other agencies. That probably would not last long but the chaos to Amtrak operations could last for months.
The DOGE IT boys probably aren’t even aware of Amtrak. Their focus seems to be on bigger stuff the ideologues favor: VA, DOD, DofEd., SS, Medicare and Medicaid.
Amtrak is not really a Federal anything. It is in structure a for profit private company. Profit will never be obtained but that is their structure. So I do not think they will even look at Amtrak and they would be breaking the law if they tried to. Note Amtrak does not turn over it’s financials to Congress to review and I think that is another key factor here that Amtrak could block DOGE review legally.
DOGE told each Cabinet Secretary to review spending closely that exceeds the $100k threshold and if the Cabinet Secretary failed to do so then DOGE would come in and do it. This applies to Federal Contracts as well as Federal Programs. That is what I read somewhere. The review will be over by EOM September or end of this fiscal year. No idea what next year holds but the last cutback of Federal Employees will be complete as well by EOM September (notifications I think go out by June 1st). After that I think the cutbacks are done for a period of time. Overall it will be a 30-40% Federal Empoyee reduction projected for most agencies down to the smallest agency. If I had to guess based on what I see with the cuts, part of the next FY will be hiring some people back after the hiring freeze is lifted…so if you want a Federal job, then…
I believe Amtrak is exempt from DOGE. DOGE will not touch anything that has a statutory requirement or law from Congress or is not a Federal Agency and I think Amtrak knows it is covered and is safe. Note that Amtrak has not made any pre-emptive cuts of any kind so far. Something they would have done by now if they even remotely felt they were in danger. Say what you will about Trump but he has been careful in areas not to hit Congressional trip wires and I think one of those is Amtrak. Yes he might zero out funding but I don’t think he will dare to cross the line and send anyone in to Amtrak HQ. Amtrak pays the lease of it’s buildings as a private company and resides in no Federal Buildings. Amtrak has Trump appointees on the Board so they have veto power but I don’t think they want to cross the red line and send people into a privately run company. That would trigger a red line for a lot of folks in Trumps Cabinet that have private companies for starters.
I think you shouldn’t really be as sanguine about Amtrak as you feel. Amtrak is a quasi-public company. And DOGE is examining many agencies and contracts. Nothing is immune.
Amtrak doesn’t exist on its own revenues - it requires governmental monies to continue to pay the bills. Governmental monies are at risk from DOGE and a thousand different naysayers.
Musk is out soon he only had x amount of days as a temp government employee. I thought his last day was May 31st but might be a little later. He is definitely out by August.