One article that grabbed my attention in the latest issue of CTT was the one on page 22 on the TCA convention. The jist of the statements made were once again concerned with bringing newcomers into the hobby. My cynical side thinks this is a lot of hot air as this topic has been one of discussion ever since I reentered the train hobby some 14 years ago.
Of course, it is really impossible to know what effect starter sets and their reported increased sales are having (or will have) on the hobby. It is impossible to know who is buying these items unless they are bought in person at a shop and the shop dealer takes notice of this or has a discussion with the purchaser (might make useful statistical infomation). No doubt a certain percentage of these train items are being purchased by seasoned train hobbiests - especially when they are advertised as blowouts by mailorder outlets - for either breakup and/or resale as pieces on ebay or at shows.
But there were some interesting comments in the article…
*** Maddox of Atlas cautioned “not to expect prices to fall, not with production and labor costs rising overseas.” Joe Hayter of Weaver commented on design improvements and scale-sized models saying “Those advances will demand more expensive tooling and smaller production runs, which will generate higher prices for individual items.”
Of course, this is already happening. In my obversation, when Lionel announced the move to China in order to compete, it wasn’t to lower overall prices (even though at the time, others offered lower list prices). But rather to have the income to devote to new scale product development. I think this has a lot to do with the overall price increases from almost everyone. The scale segment of the hobby is where the attention is right now. Not one importer is going to sit by and let the other bring out scale product that they don’t have. There are countless recent examples of this. I thin
BTW we aren’t the only collecting area worried about the future.
Earlier in the year the magazine Comic Book Marketplace ran a story about their own attempts to widen the scope of their hobby. They set up at a national numismatic convention and gave away copies of their issue dealing with Uncle Scrooge McDuck - with McDuck and coins on the cover. They figured that the coin angle might interest some coin collectors to become comic readers.
While I’m not sure how effective that might have been – coin collectors tend to have just as much gray hair as train guys – but it shows that they were aware of the age problem and that something (anything) needed to be done to draw attention to their hobby and possibly catch the eye of some new blood.
Brian, you are quite eloquent and also capture the dynamics of today’s hobby. As Bob notes, the current demographic curve seems to be endemic to certain hobbies - heck, with apologies to those in it, hobbies like stamp collecting are essentially dead as both enthusiasts have passed away and newcomers have not been attracted to collecting. From my limited perspective, I am impressed at the continuing impact of trains in general and toy trains in particular on children (and even adults - it’s was interesting to hear an awestruck report on Northlandz on NPR this morning.), and I’m optimistic by what’s out there at retail outfits like Hobby Lobby or Hobby Towne USA. Our scale (and large scale) seems more ‘noticeable’ to younger children - especially with sound, lights and smoke. And like the old Lionel ads that Roger Carp deconstructed so well in his latest book, if you get a dad enthused about these items, a $200 train set suddenly looks affordable…I think the future of our hobby is a bit schizophrenic - or I guess will continue to develop on a broader and broader continuium. On one extreme, there will be well-heeled individuals interested in expensive (and profitable from a manufacturer’s perspective) scale items - and more power to them…on the other extreme, there are those who are interested in more the toy side - which are still well-represented by train sets and items like the Beep (which I guess rely more on volume but still have a decent mark-up). As I lean more toward the latter (I would love to be the one of the former but will never have that kind of money), I am glad at the ‘tolerance’ displayed on this (and even on another) forum and in the magazines - in articles and with advertisers.
Bob, though other “collector” hobbies may suffer from the same lack of newcomer interest, our train hobby has a real advantage over comic books, stamps, coins, etc. of not being passive: this is a hobby to participate in, have fun with and learn from.
I wouldn’t be so strong minded on this topic if I had seen on so many occasions, the excited children’s faces from seeing my portable display layout… a layout with items that folks could afford to buy, a layout with a lot of creativity and no rope perimeter around the layout. What turns parents with young kids off time and time and time again is the high list prices advertised in the catalogs. It’s at a point now where a 140 page catalog has 10-15 pages tops of affordable items a young family could buy. The rest of the stuff is premium product with premium prices aimed at the established market.
Go ahead folks, show any current catalog with prices printed to a parent with a young child and see what happens. They say “we can’t afford $600 for a train engine!” Even though there may be one page with affordable engines, there are 25 more pages with engines that are clearly out of reach for most newcomers. THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM!
It’s a problem of perception. People think this is a hobby for the wealthy. When folks hear the Lionel name, they know it means trains. They also associate the name with expensive, collectible trains.
It should be more than obvious that the collector days of this hobby are in a tail spin, as far as collectible prices are concerned. There’s no shortage of items that were supposedly collectible only a few years ago that are being advertised as blowouts today… the Vapor Records cars, the Aquarium cars, limited edition cars, top-end locomotives, many of the post-war reissue cars, etc. Common sense folks - this stuff wouldn’t be reduced in price if it were selling in the first place!!
The full page ads in CTT and OGR listing nothing but titles and product numbers mean scant little t
Actually, there are more affordable trains on the market than ever before. MTH has the RailKing line, K-Line has the Train 19 line, and Lionel continues to offer a selection of affordable rolling stock and locomotives. Oh, I think Lionel’s new 0-6-0T will be the hit of the year - well made and priced to move.
Dare I mention Williams? Rolling stock and locomotives priced so low that it ticks off the competition.
The challenge become packaging and promoting the affordable trains and sets in one place. Don’t make it hard for that family to get into trains. Make it easy for people to get all the information they need in one spot. Especially the range of current inexpensive products available.
But O gauge manufacturers won’t ever do that. I believe that only one is a member of the Model Railroad Industry Association (Atlas), and Atlas is the only one participating in the World’s Greatest Hobby Program.
Of course, the irony is that I’m pretty convinced that won’t be any way to gauge how effective any program or publicity is for, oh, 20 years. When people go through the girls-college-family stage and re-enter it as a stress reduction program or whatever. It is a challenge, indeed.
Bob, I absolutely agree that it is hard to gauge what is happening. Both your magazine and the OGR have reported that starter train set sales are holding their own. Lionel says their set sales are going up. So this is a good sign, but hard to know the effects of this for the future… whether the sets are being bought for kids or for adults? Notice that the current selection of sets by K-Line seems to be equally divided between sets for adults and sets for beginners. And again, the road name selection for sets is still firmly set in the postwar era with a scant few exceptions.
I agree the Lionel 0-6-0T does look like a decent steamer and is reasonably priced to boot. But this is an item for folks with layouts already, not for first-time buyers, unless they are custom buying pieces to make their own set. It certainly is a bargain though, and has the potential to be the second loco on a beginners layout.
As far as the hit of the year, I think the RMT “Beep” already gets that honor. Hard to beat the price and quality of that one… even without the Lionel name on the box, it’s such a bargain that it is attracting attention.
And as you said, there is some variety of affordable items between all the companies. Of course, it is a little bit from company A, and a little bit from company B, etc. It’s when you look at a catalog from one single company and see the disproportionate levels between the affordable starter and the advanced trains that the direction of the hobby becomes obvious. I don’t know if there’s any concensus here, but in my observations, $200 seems to be the ceiling for many folks on a train set. For some today, that price is still a little high. So Lionel is the winner in this price range as far as selection.
MTH Railking was better in this department a few years ago, but since all their locos (except the Dockside) come with speed control, Railking set prices have moved upwards. The Dockside sets are the only ones in that $200 range. But folks aren’t