I have been a professional driver for more than 27 years now, and from what I have read in the industry press, those that seem to be realistic about the technology developent don’t expect autonomous trucks before MID-CENTURY, there have been others that have predicted the technology will be ready MUCH sooner, but generally those make other statements and claims that make them seem less credible.
I figure that I have about another 15 years in my career, at this point, and as of now, I am NOT concerned that I am going to be replaced by computers, Radar, GPS, infra-red sensors or any combination of systems, before my retirement. Having done the job, and seen the complications first hand, I personally question wether mid-century is realisic, other than on a limited case basis.
Add in how litigous our society is, and it is questionable wether autonomous trucks will be in wide-spread during this century.
As to over the road trucking being replaced by short haul inter-modal, that is a more serious threat than “self Driving Trucks”. The numbers will vary by origin/destination and commodity, but IMO, most cargo in the 700-1000 mile range and greater should have been replaced long ago by domestic inter-modal. The main reason Long-Haul Trucking is still so wide spread is that people are to IMPATIENT, eveybody wants to order it tomorrow, and get it yesterday, with a few exceptions such as HIGH-Value Electronics and Perishables, for most loads it would be more cost effective to go inter-modal but, nobody wants to WAIT that extra day or two. Rail is improving inter-modal service times, especially in Extra-Fare expedited service (Like UPS trains), but over the road is still FASTER Door to Door, and to many that is worth the extra expense.
More than 27 Years, and 2,500,000 miles moving this countries freight,
Doug