Trucking Industry Driver Shortage Solution

Trains Magazine General Discussion
1

Berlin (AFP) - German automaker Daimler said it trialled a self-driving truck under real traffic conditions for the first time Friday, on a motorway in southern Germany.

The truck has smart systems including radars, cameras and active speed regulators and works without a human driver – although one has to be in the driver’s seat and take the wheel if necessary….

http://news.yahoo.com/daimler-tests-self-driving-truck-german-highway-214036272.html

The railroads labor cost per ton mile compared to trucking will be different once this is perfected.

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Until a couple of spectacular high-profile accidents eat up any possible ‘Big Savings’ that trucking companies net from saving one-half af a non-union driving team. I do not expect to wait very long for the first of these, and it will not matter whether or not the self-driving features of the truck were in any sense to blame.

Likewise I do not expect to see the moral equivalent of the Price-Anderson Act for the fledgling self-driving heavy truck market (although I suspect there will be some allowance for automobiles).

I do expect to see the technologies marketed and sold as ‘safety’ enhancements, and priced accordingly. Whether there will be insurance savings, or reduced losses of other kinds, that counterbalance the cost of all the fancy new systems (and their inevitable complex interaction and common-mode failures) remains to be seen. But no, I don’t see a self-driving truck that requires a time-legal driver in the cab at all times to constitute a game-changing major “paradigm shift” in land transportation.

3

I’m not sure driverless trucks are going to be eliminating as many truck drivers as most, including myself, people think. I’ve kind of changed my mind because I think many companies won’t be able to use a completely autonomous truck. Mainly because many truck loads are delivered door to door by the same truck. It’s still going to take a human to back the trailer into the door.

Those companies that have at least two terminals could use autonomous trucks between terminals and have local drivers do the pick-up/delivery at either end. I think the LTL companies could be the largest users of such trucks.

Those companies that don’t have multiple terminals could still use driverless technology to have the computer take over while the driver sleeps. Thus keeping a single driver rig on the move 24 hours a day.

Autonomous vehicles bring a new aspect to what happens when a computer crashes. Despite all the hype, I think self driving vehicles aren’t as close as some claim.

Jeff

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This would have to be the truck equivalent of railroad PTC to have any hope of being accepted by the public. The first time some little kid runs out into the street after his ball - or his pet - and gets run over will be the end of it.

Even if we set aside the PR part, the technology would be similar, only a lot more extensive = worse. We’re now seeing how the reach for that is exceeding the industries’ (rail and tech) grasp of that. Let me know when the trucking industry gets that infrastructure built and paid for.

I go back to John Kneiling (see 75th issue of Trains, if you don’t know who he was): A sophisticated domestic intermodal system would render over-the-road trucking uneconomical and obsolete.

Wizlish: I suspect that almost nobody here except you and me knows what the Price-Anderson Act is all about . . . [swg]

Jeff: Dunno, I think automated back-up would be a great feature, based on some of the truck driver’s I’ve seen. (A good driver, by contrast, is a delight to watch - some are virtuosos.) All the others are good for is piloting the truck from terminal to interstate to truck stop and back. Even forward-moving turns in urban areas is too much for them - I’ve seen many traffic signals and utility poles knocked over by that maneuver. Right now I’ve got a citation pending against a driver for CRETE who couldn’t get his 8-ft. wide truck between the 10-foot wide orange cone line of my work zone - on a tangent, at any speed he chose (30 MPH +/-) - and still hit and knocked 3 orange cones into the work area, just narrowly missing the guys pouring the concrete.

  • Paul North.
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One thing that concerns me about self-driving trucks is that I’m sure the owners would want to maintain communication with the trucks to know their location and make changes to instructions about routing or such. Even with good encryption, there will be hackers trying to get control. Remember the story about the Jeep Cherokee?

http://www.guideautoweb.com/en/articles/30639/hackers-take-control-of-a-jeep-cherokee/

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Don’t be so sure. (Nuclear). And it wouldn’t be a “moral equivalent” but just another example of a sweet deal giving an industry immunity from liability, eg., firearms.

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Since my MS degree was in Nuclear Engineering…

One of the flip sides of the Price-Anderson act was that claims were easier to file than with “standard” insurance and there was a guaranteed pot of money. Contrast this with some of the trucking/barge companies that Amtrak has tangled with over the last few decades.

  • Erik
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I have been a professional driver for more than 27 years now, and from what I have read in the industry press, those that seem to be realistic about the technology developent don’t expect autonomous trucks before MID-CENTURY, there have been others that have predicted the technology will be ready MUCH sooner, but generally those make other statements and claims that make them seem less credible.

I figure that I have about another 15 years in my career, at this point, and as of now, I am NOT concerned that I am going to be replaced by computers, Radar, GPS, infra-red sensors or any combination of systems, before my retirement. Having done the job, and seen the complications first hand, I personally question wether mid-century is realisic, other than on a limited case basis.

Add in how litigous our society is, and it is questionable wether autonomous trucks will be in wide-spread during this century.

As to over the road trucking being replaced by short haul inter-modal, that is a more serious threat than “self Driving Trucks”. The numbers will vary by origin/destination and commodity, but IMO, most cargo in the 700-1000 mile range and greater should have been replaced long ago by domestic inter-modal. The main reason Long-Haul Trucking is still so wide spread is that people are to IMPATIENT, eveybody wants to order it tomorrow, and get it yesterday, with a few exceptions such as HIGH-Value Electronics and Perishables, for most loads it would be more cost effective to go inter-modal but, nobody wants to WAIT that extra day or two. Rail is improving inter-modal service times, especially in Extra-Fare expedited service (Like UPS trains), but over the road is still FASTER Door to Door, and to many that is worth the extra expense.

More than 27 Years, and 2,500,000 miles moving this countries freight,

Doug

9

Dave: “Hal, stop the truck!”

Hal: “I’m sorry Dave, I can’t do that”.

CRUNCH! [oops]

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Well, that’s why I used the ‘weasel word’ “almost” . . . [swg]

IIRC, by Price-Anderson the US government committed to pay the first $560 million (? - current amount, if any ?) of losses from a civilian nuclear accident (power plants, ships, etc.) to encourage/ promote use of atomic energy for non-military uses.

erikem: I didn’t know that a claim had ever been filed under the Price-Anderson Act.

As to robotic trucks, considering the present anti-spending and anti-special interest political environment (both somewhat selective, yes), and the lack of need - after all, trucks are common, and Google et al. are already developing the technology - I don’t see the trucking equivalent of a Price-Anderson Act happening soon.

Without rehashing John Kneiling, I’ll point out that with a private R-O-W, trrains can reach speeds high enough to be competitive with time-sensitive trucking. And not all trucking is that way. And at some point, the lower cost of rail will trump or compensate for faster trucking.

  • Paul North.
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It’s important to note that autonomous trucks are not self driving trucks. Thus far the autonmous trucks that have been tested can take over the steering of the truck on ideal highway conditions. Throw in anything less than ideal and you’re back to needing a driver’s hand on the wheel along with experience and judgement. Completely driverless trucks would require major advances in AI technology.

The real game changer in the near future is not autonomous trucks but a concept known as platooning whereby several trucks can effectively be driven by one driver down the highway. The lead truck would be driven by a driver and the following trucks would be electronically coupled and driverless. In this way a driver’s productivity would be muliplied by 200% to 800%… this is likely to come about within the next five years.

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With the platooning I presume they will occupy a separate lane and not be allowed to pass???

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And the competency & rules compliance adherence of that platoon driver had better be well beyond average.

14

Interesting concept. If the first truck jackknifes on black ice and hits the ditch, what do the trailing trucks do?

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I’d wonder if the platoon trucks would require a private R-O-W? Same thing would go for the self driving truck.

Paul: As far as I know, no one has filed a claim under the Price Anseron act - my (perhaps faulty) recollection was that claims would not have to go through as many hoops as would be the case for ordinary insurance coverage. The big fear in regards to a major accident was dealing with the release of radio-iodine, TMI showed that was very unlikely to happen.

  • Erik

P.S. More people in the U.S. have been killed by trucks trying to beat passenger trains to grade crossings than by nuclear generating stations.

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[quote user=“Murphy Siding”]

Ulrich

The real game changer in the near future is not autonomous trucks but a concept known as platooning whereby several trucks can effectively be driven by one driver down the highway. The lead truck would be driven by a driver and the following trucks would be electronically coupled and driverless. In this way a driver’s productivity would be muliplied by 200% to 800%… this is likely to come about within the next five years.

Interesting concept. If the first truck jackknifes on black ice and hits the ditch, what do the trailing trucks do?

[/quote

The same… the focus will thus be on making sure the first truck doesn’t jacknife and hit the ditch… i.e. there will still be a need for professional drivers.

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Surely every truck driver out there is trying to drive safe. Unfortunately, accidents happen. I’d bet that the first time a bad 1 truck accident turns into a bad 3 car accident the insurance companies put a stop to that.

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O.T ALERT!!!-given that there has never been a documented fatality associated with a commercial nuclear power plant in the United States (although there were a few deaths at lab facilities and test reactors and one (in my state of residence) at a nuclear fuel processing facility) it certainly is no surprise that the truck vs. grade crossing death toll is higher…

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I doubt it… the insurance companies don’t call the shots and won’t be

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I can’t say that I agree with that 100%. At least in the US. Insurance companies have been pretty good at calling many shots lately.

And we also have a legislature that is pretty much anti-science and technology, plus a many, many people that point to movies like I, Robot when discussing self-driving vehicles (platooned or otherwise).