I was wondering what you folks thought the percentage of layouts are DCC vs DC today and what those percentages may be, say,5-10 years from now?
I have no idea, and would look askance at any guesstimates, including my own. There are literally tens of thousands out there still using DC or AC, and probably less than half those numbers using digital command systems in all scales. If you hold me down and make me cough up a best guess, about 25% (or less) are using DCC who play or ‘seriously’ [:-^] model trains today.
Crandell
Well nobody really knows, but based on the evidence it is still about 50-50. And that is likely only among HO and N scale modelers who consider themselves fairly “serious” hobbyists.
Why? A poll taken on this forum not too long ago was about 55% DCC, 45% DC. We can expect that those using a forum are more likely to be more “tech friendly” or more advanced in the hobby, giving DCC an advantage in a poll on here.
Most of the major loco manufacturers are still offering DC locos. Given the extra costs this entails, the DC market must be strong and they must feel or know from experience that DC modelers will not pay for electronics they do not want or need. And they don’t seem to be changing their mind about this marketing approach.
Bachmann has gone basically all DCC - BUT, their decoders are dual mode and inexpensive, adding little cost for DC users. And most of their locos are easily “back converted” for DC throttles that do not like dual mode decoders.
Their new B&O EM-1 comes only with a basic decoder - you buy the sound board separate. This shows clearly that they see a big market for non sound, non DCC users. And this “formula” may be seen on more models in the future.
Even MTH gave in and started offering DC versions.
I do suspect most new modelers will start out with DCC or convert to it very early on.
I do also suspect from conversations with shop owners and others in the industry and hobby that I have known a long time (I use to work in this industry), that conversion to DCC by established modelers has slowed to near zero - That is most of the current DC users are very likely to stay with DC for the rest of their hobby life.
Also, there are other technolo
I think Sheldon has summed it up pretty well, if not too exactly in terms of #s, because as he noted I don’t think anyone really knows %s, etc other than very roughly.
One other factor is that DCC may be in somewhat wider use among those who actually operate regularly. A lot of older users of DC are probably those who had rather smaller layouts, although I’m sure this is far from a rule. It’s just that those who do tend to invest in expensive DCC systems do so in part because of the belief that it will reduce the time spent wiring larger layouts versus DC, which isn’t necessarily so.
In the end, the only people that the numbers really matter to are those seeking to introduce new products in either DC or DCC. Maybe for DC it’s more like decisions about continuing to produce products that may no longer be sustainable in terms of sales. That may have been why the MRC ControlMaster 20 that was discussed in another thread went out of production; MRC didn’t think they could sell enough, fast enough, to contract for another run of them? However, I think there’s will always be a place for DC and even if some familiar items are no longer available new, the rather bullet-proof and repairable nature of DC powerpacks ensures there will always be lots of used DC hardware available out there.
As to the second part, the future, the number of people using DCC will grow. I’d guess in 20 years it will be 80-20 or 90-10 DCC vs DC. I know from working in taxes, 10 years ago only 10% or so of tax returns were filed electronically. 2010 was I think the first year where e-filings were more than paper filings. In time it will be 90-10 the other way, with paper being rare. It’s just a matter of age. Older people who grew up with DC (or paper returns) are more likely to insist on sticking with it, while new kids joining the hobby are already computer literate and feel comfortable with things like DCC.
Stix,
I think the transition time is going to be a bit longer, say 20 years, to get over 90% DCC. Certainly serious newcomers to the hobby are probably close to that level, once you subtract the numbers of train set buyers who still get a DC pack most of the time. It’s when those Xmas sets become mostly DCC that will finally push serious newcomers almost exclusively to DCC and I don’t see that coming for awhile. If you want to go roundy round, then that market could stay DC for quite awhile yet because the economics of that market are quite a bit different than the main model RR market most of here ate in.
Trains are not taxes, different motivations at work for adoption of newer technology, I’d think. That DC train will run just as well in 20 years, while the gubmint might take it all wrong if you sent them your tax return from 2010 in 2030. A model train that’s 20 years older is the object of substantial sentiment and nostalgia. No one feels that way about their taxes.
And with a little cleaning up, that old DC loco will still go reliably so long as you have a powerpack. For a lot of people, that’s enough and there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s going to take a little longer for that demographic to pass, I suspect.
I have to agree that Direct Radio is going to cut into the DCC market. The advantage of Direct Radio, like the NWSL S-CAB, is that it can use any track power or inboard battery. Adding Direct Radio does not require modification of existing layout wiring, and unlike DCC, does not require modification of all locomotives.
Systems like RailPro offer telemetry that makes consisting easy. This improved technology will also make existing DCC systems obsolete. This is not to say that existing DCC layouts will be converted, since Direct Radio can be used on a DCC layout.
As noted, most remaining DC users are unlikely to convert to DCC, however, they could use some Direct Radio locomotives with inboard battery power to extend operations on the DC layout. Again, Direct Radio can be introduced piece by piece without having to convert everything.
While all of this is being debated, MRC has been making decoders that will operate on DC, DCC, or Direct Radio. These have been installed in some Athearn steam locomotives, and are available for the Walthers GP-15. A radio remote is included with these units.
As a final note, once inboard battery power has been experienced, it is difficult to go back to any track power system.
Really, unless you’re in the business, who cares what percentage of all modelers everywhere use what? Model railroaders are individuals, not interchangeable parts, so average means nothing.
I can say with absolute certainty that the modeler who runs trains in my garage is running analog DC, MZL system. That’s true today, and will remain true for the foreseeable future. What others are doing elsewhere is of, at best, academic interest. What my heirs might do after I leave the building interests me even less.
As a former statistician, I know how much effort is required to simply gather enough data to determine where something stands - Mark! And the next time the clock ticks, the number changes. As far as what will happen years down the road, there are WAY too many variables for anything better than a wild-a** guess. Your favorite Gypsy fortune-teller would probably come up with an equally (in)valid answer.
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - my way)
I haven’t seen or operated on a DC layout in years. Even the few that were still using DC converted over to DCC because they want to operate, even if they only run a few trains in a session.
When you really look at it, both systems cost about the same, but one is a lot easier to get up and running, and keep it that way.
The only reason you see DC locomotives is cost. Sure, some buyers have no interest in DCC, but the majourity sees the price difference and that causes a bit of a problem. Or they buy the DC version so they can install a Tsunami in it or their preferred decoder.
Guessing current vs. predicting future %s of either is all going to be speculative at best and - more than likely - just turn into a disagreeable disagreement of opinions. Seen it before…
Tom
Hi,
Sheldon’s early posting on this thread made sense to me. While no one knows the “right” answers to the OPs original question, I don’t think anyone can deny that DCC is slowly gaining momentum.
One thought I would like to add… Newcomers to the hobby - at least those under 50 (for want of a better number) - grew up in the computer & electronic toy era. DCC is “right up their alley”, and they will - IMO - gravitate towards that.
After over 4 decades of DC operation, I switched to DCC in 2008 while building a new layout. It was expensive, somewhat difficult to understand, and lots of “ifs/ands/buts”. That being said, I’ve never looked back…
Bill,
What if I’ve turned my momentum off? Does that lower the percentage? [:o)]
Tom
Yeah but if you only turn off the acceleration momentum, you still have the deceleration momentum to keep it going
–Randy
Tom,
As mobilman44 pointed out, for him, DCC is “difficult to understand”, and lots of “ifs/ands/buts”. He doesn’t even know how to turn momentum on, let alone turn it off. [:P]
Rich
Possibly.
I see a group of folks who I know have a wide range of opinion on the subject individually, but who are agreeing on pretty much the same thing. DC persistence, incremental DCC market gains, and the possibility of new technology changing the game for everyone in perhaps unanticipated ways.
Now, we may disagree on how we say it, but I see more common ground than serious disagreement on overall trends.
Regarding on-board battery and radio control, the issue there will be technology and cost. If one has a very flexible budget, one can get into that game right now. But I think there are limitations still to overcome, primarily due to advances in battery technology lagging behind other technological advances. Like plug-in hybrids vs all-electric cars, most people still find relying on relatively old technology is a better fit financially and expectation-wise with a hybrid than making the leap all the way to battery power in autos.
The advantage model railroading has over cars is that the power source for recharging is readily available through the tracks. In any case, in 10 years or so, that paradigm will likely have changed enough that on-board, track-charged and radio-controlled motive power will be making inroads on DCC and whatever is left of DC.
Chuck’s note that we’re talking about a snapshot in time is something important to keep in mind as the mix and interaction between consumer needs, market forces, and technological advances means that you should never put all your money on a single horse. After decades, I too made the leap to DCC. Given the size of my layout and my propensity to stay in one locale at this stage in my life, I’m very unlikely to face the
I think topics like these can be the source of thoughtful discussion, as long as they remain civil. Seen it turn otherwise before.
As far as the new technology replacing DCC, it is probably started to become reality; and being seriously put into production. Why do I say this? I bought my first complete NCE DCC system about a month ago for about $150 including shipping. When companies get serious about new technology, the price of the “old” technology gets cheaper. The price I paid for my system tells me that companies think the development of DCC has been paid for, and that new technology is on the horizon.
Lost in some of these discussions is the fact that some people are very interested or intrigued by how something is done, and that may, in part, motivate them to upgrade technology.
Others have mentioned how the conversion from DC to DCC has trickled to a halt. That’s understandable. The DC holdouts probably have a system that operates their trains very well already. Converting to a new system may only give them what they already have, a system that operates their trains very well. How their trains are operated may not be that relevant to them.
I suspect that reality may seep into the decision making process for those who will convert from a well operating DCC system to any new operating system technology that’s developed. What will they really gain after the convertion? A well operating layout, which is something they already have.
The introduction of onboard sound, gave DCC an advantage over DC beyond being just a way to control trains. Will any new technology give an existing DCC operator a real advantage; a new feature beyond motor, light, and sound control?
How that thinking will impact the percentages I have no idea. Newbies to the
Theres no reason for this not to br civil as we are not dicussing the fate of the larger world. In my opinion as long as there are inexpensive “train around the tree” sets out there introducing MR to the masses with DC there wil always be a DC crowd out there.
would it be better to ask what percentage of locomotives are being sold with dcc?
and when compared to the number of locomotives being sold, how many decoders are being sold?
Greg,
I think that’s a more tangible and less speculative approach to the topic at hand.
Tom
How about how many DC vs DCC starter train sets are being sold. Or the number of new DC packs vs DCC controllers.