I have several locomotives that were mint and new in box, but were produced from 2002 to 2005 and their value is 50% of what I paid for them. Why do they depreciate so bad even though they are new/mint?
todd
Lack of demand. We love them, but not everyone sees the world through train-coloured glasses like we do (shame that). If this hobby ever becomes fashionable, that might change.
God knows we love our little choo-choos, but I don’t buy 'em as an investment. There’s not a lot of things sadder than a toy that never comes out of its box…
All the best,
Stu
Why would model trains be different than any other product we buy? Heck you buy a brand new car, drive it off the lot, and it depreciates by 35%.
Do you buy a TV, keep it in the box brand new, and after 7 years and expect it not to depreciate by 70%.
I never assume or expect my model trains to appreciate. They are to be bashed weathered and used and when they stop working they will get bashed into something else.
Agreed.
But, it is also a matter of supply. There were a lot built and a lot are still available, even new.
Rich
Major video game releases can depreciate 50% in value over the span of months and that’s a multi-billion dollar industry. Literally everything loses value at a huge rate.
Train models are not original Picassos, Ming vases or holy objects to any recognized religion. They are toys for (supposedly) adults and adolescents. As such, their value is whatever someone is willing to pay for them - which is also true for Ming vases and Picassos, but the dynamics differ.
You might get a substantial return on investment if you offer them on E-bay and generate a bidding war. There have been numerous threads about the preposterous prices paid by E-bay bidders for mundane items, so you might get lucky. (Don’t bet the mortgage on it.)
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)
Very few models actually appreciate in value over the years - like the famous Marklin “Crocodile” of 1948 vintage. It sold for the horrendous amount of 72 Deutschmarks ($ 17) and sells for $ 2.200 these days.
Model trains are mass-produced toys, only very rare items make it into the hall of fame.
Time and sentiment are factors as well. Who wants to pay $60K for a ten year-old Corvette? Would anyone pay for a 45 year-old Corvette? Yup, and if all the parts are mint and original, probably a lot more than the $60K.
Many thousands of our train models have been produced, and the ones we have used since the onset of DCC have not appreciated in value. Even brass can be had for a song these days, although rare locos that get run do very nicely for price, thanks very much. I still see 2-8-8-4 runs from ten years ago going for about what they were brought to market back then, sometimes considerably more if they are exceptionally fine and highly regarded as a model…and few…and in good condition.
It may be that our Paragon/Spectrum/Genesis/Master locomotives will come close to their original value in time, but they’d have to be somewhat rare, really well looked after, and highly sought. I doubt that will happen within the next 20 years.
Crandell
There are some games that actually increased in value because they are extremely rare and in high demand…
As far as model trains there are some that increase in value while others slide off the bottom.
The majority have no real clue what some of their models are worth because of myths and well meaning but, misleading information.
Even some expensive brass trains have depreciated over time but makers like Key or Overland keep their value longer. I have picked up some brass locos on the cheap where when new they sold for more than twice what I paid. The plastic stuff will never appreciate when there are successive runs and improvements in details and quality.
If you want an investment in model trains the some time travel to pre war tinplate era is needed. And don’t forget the boxes.
Pete
Priced a United 2 or 3 truck Shay lately?
Suffice it to say I would love to be able to travel back in time and stock up on those Shays.
A P2K Ohio Central GP7 is another that went up sufficiently in price.Unbelievable what they engine can fetch.
Hi,
How did you get the 50 percent number? In my experience (I’ve sold a lot of train stuff over the years - most all on Ebay), that number can vary so much - depending of course on timing and your audience.
Selling on an auction site is a good measure of value, as the buyers are almost always “end users”. And timing is the big variable. One measure for model trains is selling in the winter vs. the summer - as the amount of buyers are significantly higher in the winter (duh…).
Every year for the last 11, I have run 50-100 auctions around Christmas. Many times what doesn’t sell one week will be the subject of a bidding war a week or two later. In example, I had two sets of Rivorossi Illinois Central passenger cars - like new, in the box - to sell. In 2009, I put them up for a starting amount of $29 each and had no takers - even with a relist. The next year, they sold for $69 & $73, a bit more than what I had originally paid for them.
One piece of advice for selling MR stuff on an auction site… start the item at the minimum you will take for it. That way, if it sells, you will at least get what you would take, and not be “giving it away”.
Excellent advice.
I’ll add when selling on the local use market or train show jack your price slightly above what you want and allow the buyer to talk you down to your price–if he even bothers to negotiate the price.
If you purchase them at a low price to start with they will go up in value. You also have to purchase the right ones.
In the late 1980,s i had a collection of Lionel trains with $2500.00 invested I sold them for over $6000.00.
I also in the 1990,s i had alot of n gauge i purchased online thru ebay, Trainworld, and other discount sellers. When i switched to HO i sold most of it for what i paid or higher. All of the Con-Cor Boxed sets i sold for a very good profit. Have you looked at Ebay lately. The early used Life-like N engines (GP38 ,GP18.SD,s and E units) are selling used for what they cost 15 years ago. A good Kato also holds it’s value very well.
In HO the Bachmann Spectrum, Mantua, AHM steam and Rivarossi engines (If in good shape) all sell at a much higher price than they did when they were on sale 20+ years ago. I sold quite a few HO Rivarossi engine i purchased for $29.95 for well over $100.00.
The Athearn Blue Box engines still hold good value if purchased on sale years ago.
All the early HO Broadway Limited engines are still selling for much higher than the discounted price when they were released. When the GG1 was put on clearance for $125.00 with sound I purchased 5 of them. Few years later i sold 3 of them for over $250.00 each.
Shop around. Keep your stuff in good condition. And after 20 years you might break even. I don’t know of another hobby that will give you the same result.
First is the trust issue. I don’t know you, so I don’t know if your stuff really is NIB - that is you never took it out and/or ran it.
Second is the warranty. If it doesn’t run are you going to give me my money back? Does the manufacturer’s warranty still cover a ten year old product? will he honor a resale? does he even have parts still to fix it?
Third is obsolescence. Are better products out now?
Fourth is price. What did the last one sell for when everyone was dumping them? What do comparable models sell for now - their discounted price?
All of these conspire to drive prices down.
For rare and desirable items the price may go up. But the only real collector’s market for trains is Toy Trains primarily Lionel, but also American Flyer and a few others. Sure, there are a few folks who collect HO, N, etc. But not enough to establish a market.
As with others above, I don’t buy trains as an investment. And while I have stuff NIB, it’s because I haven’t gotten around to building/running it yet. Everything (in 3 scales yet) was bought with the idea of using it. But I confess I buy some things just because I think they are neat even if they don’t fit my current S scale early 50’s Ma&Pa layout. But I don’t pay collector prices, I only buy if it’s cheap. Eventually I may set up some small display layouts just to run the stuff.
Good luck
Paul
Heck, my wife says that even I depreciate in value the older I get, why would model trains be any different…LOL just kidding [(-D]!
Carry on…[:-^]
Happy modeling!
Don.
Part of the issue is also buying pre-owned equipment, even if supposedly new. There is risk that the seller is misrepresenting something as new / unopened / mint. I bought a pair of sneakers via Amazon that had been soiled slightly, likely because someone bought & returned them in less than mint condition. I’ve not been burned in the MR purchases I’ve made (e.g., E-Bay items) but I know there is more risk there than with “new” merchandise.
I haven’t read all the posts, but just checking ebay, from my experience they can easily go up from paid price. I have many locos I purchased in early 2000s on sale from a LHS and they are on ebay for retail price. I have almost always bought at much cheaper prices at LHS. I recently sold a bunch of stuff to an LHS at about 25% of retail, so I lost there, but I didn’t want to go through the headaches of ebay.
Richard
Discount retailers start to “depreciate” the value of models as soon as they come out. Places like Trainworld and M.B. Klein have what we call “great” prices, or “street” prices. They buy and sell in quantity. Once models have been on their shelves too long, they reduce the prices even further.
Don’t look at the Walthers price as the starting point, because the street price is already lower.