The question on many travelers’ minds is will Amtrak have to shutdown by the end of June? My guess is it won’t happen since some way will be found to cover the $200 million shortfall for the lst quarter of FY 2002. Note: the federal fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30.
Don Phillips who writes on transportation issues in the Washington Post had an article in the Saturday, June 22, 2002 Washington Post which clearly detailed how shutting down Amtrak would create havoc in the commuter rail service in the northeastern part of the country as well as in Chicago, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.
In addition to that the freight railroads that have trackage rights on Amtrak won’t be able to use them to reach their lines or shippers. For example, Norfolk Southern uses Amtrak between Perryville, MD and Baltimore also between Perryville and Wilmington, DE. CSX uses Amtrak between landover Jct. (Outside of Washington, DC) and Bowie (Huntington), MD to reach their Popes Creek Secondary Line. The importance of this line is it serves two power plants. This is all the more reason why the $200 million loan or whatever you might want to call it is important.
If someone doesn’t act and provide the financing…according to today’s paper in our area [Indiana], it will start to do that this coming Wednesday…The 26th.
You have it well covered on what is expected to happen…I think financing will come but, it is really irresponsible for our leadership [in Washington], to let it go this close to Chaos.
QM
Why isn’t it irresponsible for the leadership of Amtrak to have allowed it to come to this? How much did the Federal government give Amtrak to run this FY? - Ed
Ed:
I think it was $521 mil.
I was just thinking something much like what you wrote… and I am also thinking that, whatever your opinion of him, (and beleive me I am no McCainiac!), that we might soon see some McCainiaction.
It appears that the House will not be receptive to a bailout, and any Congressional action will thus take place in the Dem controlled Senate. Which should be fun,
The catch line on the radio this morning was ‘Amtrak hasn’t made money in all of its 31 years. Why should we think this will be a loan?’
I have avoided all political references as long as possible but the solution will be overrun with politics. I think the political reality is that if the other routes get dropped, then the whole country will demand that the NEC get their funding from the NEC states. This would reflect the regional perspective that I have advocated several times in the past. On the brighter side, if the NEC states start funding it, then NECtrak will be more accountable to their customers.
I am shocked that McCain is the champion of the ‘kill Amtrak’ movement in congress. He has been such a staunch opponent of all things Bu***hat I would have expected him to be more congenial toward all Democrat controlled regions of the country, particularly the NE US. - Ed
It’s irresponsible on all involved…but we all know Amtrak could not be run as it should have been on the kind of financing it has had over the years. Most of the time when they were short on financing they cut service, train off’s, cut personell, deferred maintenance in order to even meet payrolls. With no other means of improvement, what were they [Amtrak], to do…
QM
Can’t imagine why “Amtrak not making money in 31 years”, should surprise too many folks that are aware of what a passenger train is…Check out many of our Airlines and see how flush with money they have been over many years…Not many of them make money.
As for McCain leading the pack to kill off the passenger train…He’s been on that kick for some years now. Before Bush was in the White House.
QM
My guess is that last minute emergency funding will come through. However,I think that Amtrak’s longterm future is cloudier than ever. I don’t think that this crisis will lead to the kind of critical examination and decision making necessary to come up with a rational and economical operating plan for the carrier. It looks to me that Amtrak will remain the political football it’s always been.
Well… not necessarily the result that we would like… but I think what Amtrak ought to have done is shut down the worst routes and conectrated their cash on their best ones. I know this means the “system” would no longer exist, but maybe by concentrating their cash on just a few lines they could have provided the rail service needed to prove they can be a world class company. And prove that they are still relevant, or could be.
Personally, I’m all for starting a betting pool, on the number of days an Amtrak shutdown will last (ranging from 0, meaning no shutdown at all, to infinity, meaning liquidation).
Given such a pool, I’d bet heavily on 1 day.
And in the event of liquidation, I think I may want to start another pool. On the net number of Republican congressmen who lose their seats in the next election.
How many Republicans are in NEC states? How many Democrats?
Not enough, obviously. Actually, even Amtrak’s last management team, which I agree left something to be desired (They should have never promised Congress it could be self-sufficient. I wonder which drugs they were on? Maybe it is those drugs President Bush’s father allowed in when he was CIA chief to fund weapons for the Middle East,) said months ago they did not have money to get through the fiscal year, but no one believed them. Now it has come to pass.
Rush Limbaugh got his jollies today at the expense of our Passenger rail service…“The government to give Amtrak [ha, ha, ha]…Folks, they want 200 million…!!! I’ll tell you where they’ll have to get it from…Social Security…!!” an on an on…he went. [Paraphrasing]. I supposed he laughed all the way to his black Mercedes on his way out.
QM
I’d put my money on a shutdown lasting between two and three weeks. The Amtrak crisis hasn’t really become a major issue. Time magazine doesn’t mention it in their current issue (7/2/02) and the Wall Street Journal (6/24/02) gives the Republican line on the subject.
Regarding the number of Republican congressmen who lose their seats in November if Amtrak shuts down, there will be lots of them. And state legislators as well.
I think I’m echoing Ed’s point above, but here goes:
Most Amtrak heavy states are allready represented by Dems. Therefore, no Republican losses there.
Most states w/o Amtrak are Republican, so no loss there.
Those states with some Amtrak and some Republicans? I don’t think Amtrak has enough riders for anyone to care. The Unionized employee base is probably allready 80% Dem, and not enough travellers will be inconvenienced.
Most people will probably, (wrongly) cheer it on, because that’s one less train that the gates on the highway have to go down for.
Just a heads up on this topic from the West Coast, folks!
As of Monday PM… basically every news organization is running the same AP wire story… framing the qoutes with Gunn & Mineta “agreeing” on many topics…
But the Western dailies aren’t putting this story on the front pages of their online versions… it’s buried, you can’t even find it without using a search button.
NYT & WPost are putting it on their main pages… but low down.
So still nothing great from the press coverage yet.
Alexander in Oregon
My best guess is Amtrak will not shutdown. According to the Fox 5 10 PM News this evening[June 24] Amtrak and the Department of Transportation are working on a way to get Amttrak the $200 million it needs for the rest of FY 2002. The main driver is the commuter service in the Northeast, Chicago, and the West Coast.
But I think the damage may have already been done in that some people who may have thought about using Amtrak for a trip this summer may use some other mode of transportation because of the uncertainty whether Amtrak would still be in business.
I doubt if any Amtrak cutback or liquidation would affect any of the House or the Senate electoral races.
Make no mistake about it Amtrak will have to cut some of their poorer performing routes, but I don’t see any of these cuts coming until the fall at the earliest.
Rudy:
I wholeheartedly agree… Amtrak just doesn’t touch enough people’s lives to affect the elections… except perhaps in the NEC states.
I’d bet… Sunset Limited will go. And probably CZ, as I think the compromise will be to keep the SW Chief.
Bigger paring will probably occur in some of the midwestern routes, which I am not as familiar with.
I just hope the City of New Orleans doesn’t go.
Alexander
If the system cannot survive and be rehabilitated into a workable transportation system…Shut the who system down…Not just a piece here and there. We keep hearing about this making a profit…Won’t happen…It just has to be a utility that serves us and it costs money. I don’t mind paying my share if it is done properly and run with good management.
QM
uh, abcraghead,
Not all of the corridor trains are in the northeast. Nor are all the regional commuter lines that contract with Amtrak for running rights and/or operating personnel.
California has three corridors (Capitol, San Joaquin, and Surfliner), and I can name three commuter lines contracting with Amtrak off the top of my head (Metrolink, Coaster, and the venerable Caltrain) as well as parts of at least four intercity trains that I can name off the top of my head (Coast Starlight, California Zephyr, Southwest Chief, and Sunset Limited.)
While California does have twelve more Democrats in the House than Republicans, it also has some of the most intractably reactionary and social-Darwinist Republicans in the House, namely Chris Cox and Dana Rohrabacher.