But what about NS and CSX? They would have to ‘natural merge’ to create true east-west transcons first… would that be UP-CSX and BNSF-NS? Buffet’s estate is about the only thing that could swing a transcontinental financing without ruinous expense, but I can’t imagine ‘value investing’ acquiring the congeries of lines that have come to be incorporated in CSX… nor do I see them ‘cherry picking’ the equivalent of Gould’s alphabet route to get bridges to sustainable transconental points.
THEN we see what has to be carved out of UP and CPKC , or CN/BNSF/NS, to make even a ‘Kings’ STB approve that disaster. By then we may be rebounded into another administration so hostile to American business that it intentionally merges itself wholesale to be Canadian, like Burger King and Tim Horton’s, rather than supporting those provinces that vote to join our union (Alberta might have been an attractive ‘sell’ before we put our collective foot in US-Canadian relations).
Interesting times, said the Chinese, may we live in interesting times.
I propose we write a section-by-section recasting of Don Oltmann’s wonderful ‘railroading in 2040’… along the adventures of Cinderdick model… that describes what life running trains in such a merged world would be like. Who wants to start?
They’re chump roads. Just fold them both into Conrail Shared Assets and set up Open Access in the East for UP and BNSF. <"/"jocularity part deux>
Actually, I have mused about Conrail Shared Assets being used as a quasi-Open Access entity to allow UP and BNSF to access all rail markets in the east in order to satisfy the new merger rules’ requirement for enhanced competition. The one issue that I always run into when attempting to think thru logical East-West merger pairings is that both UP and BNSF have to interchange ~45-50% of their traffic to/from the east with CSX and NS. Picking just one of the eastern carriers to merge with creates a large, messy traffic level and flow problem. UP and BNSF really need access to both. I think that reality accounts for a lot of the historical reluctance to engage in transcontinental mergers.
There’s one problem with any merger involving the BNSF. You’re literally going to have to buy the railroad from Berkshire Hathaway for cash or they’re going to have to buy your railroad up in order to make it happen. But then again Berkshire is one of the largest shareholders of Kraft Heinz and Coca-Cola in the USA plus several other companies.
