1 Train Law-No passenger train has ever made money on just passengers and those that claimed to do so has been by slight of hand. The mail is what made profits and when railroads figured that out they divorsed express from having to haul around pesky passengers and ran UPS and Fed Ex trains.
Brightline is being finaced by Junk Bonds that are not even investment grade. Fortress Invesments INC which went public at 15.00 a share way back in 2006 is now only trading at 5.00 a share. Its major shareholders are Japanese banks that are being investgated for conections to the Yakusa and South American instrests. So its a money laudering operation designed to lose money.
The bet is that the train will be succesfull enough that once it fails that the public demand will be so much to demand subsidy aka METRA commuter rail in which you cant live with it you cant live without it.
Did the word “Failure” disappear from the dictionary? “Fail” is very rarely used as a noun in a very few circumstances, but not as used by the OP. He could also delete “be a huge”, but that would be too easy.
I don’t think that they intend to make money from the trains. The real purpose is to make money from real estate development along the ROW. There really can’t be much of a market for passenger trains between Orlando and Miami.
Actually the demographics to me anyway point to there being a market among the I can’t drive anymore set lets meet the grandkids at Disney set but that is not enough to make money I agree the ROW is what matters.
If you want to get technical, the land development in and around the station areas in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach has already earned a mint for the project’s backers and the first trainset has yet to leave the factory. Now please put down the Kool-Aid and leave the trains to the professonals.
Is not there a passenger train running north from Saratoga Springs, NY, that is making money for its mostly frieght short-line or regional railroad? What about the intended startup of Worcester - Providence commuter service? Doesn’t the Cape Cod summer service more than break even for the MBTA, in contrast to all its other operations?
Specific markets, handled efficiently, can be exceptions.
I would disagree with most of the naysayers, even Amtrak has proven that corridor services for just an 85 mile corridor if run somewhat inefficiently can cover 98% of costs via farebox with enough frequency. Noteably and in a lot of cases, Amtrak is not charging or getting a take in parking fees and only recently discovered that it could make some money with retail at larger stations. Additionally, Amtrak doesn’t own the Milwaukee Depot nor the Mitchell Field Airport Depot, and so lost a chunk of financial opportunity there.
So if you think about it, a private company, much more nimble an innovative on it’s feet than Amtrak can probably eek out a marginal profit with enough frequency of trains between Orlando Airport and Miami. Even more so if they make the next logical move and obtain a interline agreement with some of the Airlines serving Orlando. Lots of ways FEC can innovate to improve the bottom line that Amtrak has never tried. It’s a great start that they own almost all the Terminals they are stopping at. Ride to Miami with Rental Car waiting would be a great marketing package and it looks like they have plenty of room in the Miami station for rental car counters. Ride to Miami with Hotel Packages, another marketing package they could put together and get commissions on. Ride to Miami and Depart on Cruise Ships…yet another way for folks that do not want to park in the Port area. Whole host of ride the train and proceed onto another destination marketing packages, Amtrak has never tried and probably will never try until Brightline does it.
Waiting in breathless anticipation of their Bistro Car to see how much they wipe the floor with past Amtrak excuses on not being able to run one without an astronomical loss attached. I have high confidence they will do a much better job financially with a bistro car. They might not make a profit BUT the
Personally, I want someone to come up with a financially workable semi-high speed rail service from Miami to Key West with some stops along the way. They would not lack for passengers–especially on weekends when traffic flow can sometimes result in as long as 6 hour trips.
That would be interesting–where would you have the track laid? All new bridges? Granted, I have never been to Key West, but I wonder how much land would be available. Also, who would finance the construction?
Bistro service, at least on Deutsche Bahn, is like a cafe: hot and cold and alcoholic beverages, salads, cold and hot sausages & sandwiches and other hot entrees, including some regional specialties and pastries. It’s quite good. Most items are 3 to 5 €; the most expensive (beef stew or Maultaschen currently) are 9,90 €.
And just what do you think US 1 was constructed on? The remains of the FEC’s line from mainland Florida to Key West that was destroyed in a 1935 Hurricane. If you can resurect Henry M. Flagler and his Standard Oil (pre-income tax) wealth maybe the FEC can build another Overseas Highway.
I think if you check, even with a monopoly of only rail, there wasn’t much business on that segment, though Flager was hoping it would build as each Island developed more. Very much doubt a newer version would work because of the low population density and inability to achieve fully loaded trains at frequencies that would pay back the investment made with bridges.
Also, I believe if you research it a little more the intended market might have been cutting time from Miami to Havanna via steamship vs just Key West…only a hunch on my part though. Have no idea what was in Mr Flagers head when he thought of that extension.
I think the profit and income is coming from land owned adjacent to the the bright line stations. Huge development around Miami central station, in ft Lauderdale, Boca, Delray, Boynton Beach and west palm will fuel profitability.
It still an unpleasant drive north or south on the Florida turnpike from Miami to Orlando. Even worst on the old beeline connecting Melbourne/ Titusville to Orlando.
The Orlando international airport has a strong international route base. The bright line will make it easy to connect to points on the east coast and south Florida.
But again I think it’s all about the real estate, with more rail passengers than what you are projecting being a bonus.
I think it is much more than just a few bridges. Land is in very short supply in the Keys, and that which exists is treasured by the inhabitants. I think any politically feasible route would have to “go to sea” southwest of Homestead and remain there nearly the entire way. Essentially I am thinking about a 100 miles of causeway with occasional bridges to allow the passage of boats.
Such a proposal is a dream for the consulting and lawyer classes who would spend years and millions debating enviromental impact alone, but not practical idea. I like trains, but this is literally a bridge too far!
The Last Train to Paradise by Les Standiford is an excellent account of the building, operation, and collapse of the FEC’s railroad from Miami to Key West.
On a drive from Miami to Key West some of railroad bridges or remains of them can be seen.