Those figures are probably not far out of line with reality. Shifts occur over time, of course. O scale would be sliding off the charts were it not for the growing On30 rage. For every O scaler that drops out of the scale an On30 guy is coming on line.
G and F and their respective NG off shoots are growing due to some former big scale O scalers looking for larger scale modeling, no third rail and more disposable income. Classic, ultra high scale, two rail O is just about dead. Lionel 3 rail O rules the scale, probably always has.
N is certainly growing especially among the newer, younger MRs who have fine motor skills intact and the scale’s now proven ability to reach “high scale” levels in the Diesel arena and run 50 car trains on realistic sized layouts.
HO seems static due to a near ideal balance of size, high scale and massive numbers of models and options on the market. HO stays pat due mostly to scale changers. O scalers stepping down to get more operation in the same space and a larger selection of rolling stock and N scalers getting older and looking to have a larger selection of good steam models. Most true HO guys never change scale, but just die off in the scale.
Z is a novelty scale, currently, much as N was back when introduced.
Money seems not to matter since all moderate scales are similar in expense by most folks standards. Ultra high scale S, O, G and F gear and rolling stock remain the domain of the very well off MRs with lots of space and disposable incomes. Good economic times can see these scales grow.
Richard there’s a lot of 60 and 70 year old modelers in N Scale…I was in N and gave it up last fall for several reasons…
You are correct there is a lot of modeling going on in N…It never failed to amaze me how some spends hours adding mu hoses,uncoupling bars etc to their diesels or kitbashing a diesel or steam locomotive…
Except for a brief foray into O with Lionel train sets my brother and I got for Christmas one year, I have always modeled in HO. Our first “sheet of plywood” layout was a Marklin train set that my father bought when we were stationed in France when he was in the Air Force.
My first permanent layout was a garage layout (in Phoenix, AZ, no less). My current layout is a basement “empire” that I built in HO. I stuck with HO for a couple of reasons:
More availability of models, rolling stock, motive power, etc.
Eyesight and motor skills. It’s hard enough to place details in HO without even thinking about N scale.
I’m not sure it’s valid to exclude the hi railers any more. With the detail and scale fidelity of most of the O and S lines coupled with the vast amount of scale structures available most are really scale modelers. The tinplate guys and the O27 maybe not, but otherwise I’d say count them.
I don’t know about that. I’ve been in HO for about 48 years, but yet I, like several of my friends, are drawn to 0n30. This stuff is incredibly detailed, runs well, yet doesn’t take up the entire basement (even though it can!) They have already jumped, and I’m on the fence!
According to a magazine I subscribe to, HOj (1:80/16.5mm gauge) and Nj (1:150/9mm gauge) are about neck in neck, with a few oddball gauge variations of HOj gaining popularity. HOe (aka HO762, 1:87/9mm gauge) is a strong niche scale.
So, according to TMS, I’m right in the center channel of the mainstream, while here in North America I’m one of those, “other,” modelers. OTOH, in my layout space HOj scores 100% and those other scales don’t even register on a sensitive seismograph.
Incidentally, the magazine is Tetsudo Mokei Shumi.
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - in 1:80 scale on 16.5mm gauge track)
I stayed in HO scale, but recently went over to HOn3, narrow gauge. I will admit to some of the On30 stuff catching my eye, but currently am too heavily invested in new HOn3 locos and rolling stock stuff to do any scale jumping.
It’s narrow gauge I am in love with…In any scale, but I have to be realistic. Plus, I have a ton of older, great, period HO buildings, people, cars and trucks left over from my standard gauge HO from my many years of MR’ing that are fully transferable into HOn3. On30 would do away with hundreds of dollars worth of useful HO scale stuff, forcing me to rebuy like items I already have in the new scale. For us old time MR’s, jumping scale is a big commitment. Look and think before you leap.
If I were a brand new narrow gauge freak with no MR history, I would probably go On30. Even though HOn3 has a far more vast selection of everything, both new and used, than any other narrow gauge scale.
Most of the hobby shops I visit would rank HO at least twice as large as N scale in stock and sales, but over three times as large seems high to me in percentage. It would seem to me that N scale is higher than the 20%, but I have always collected HO so my perception might be just that.
I have no data from any manufacturers to back any numbers so this is just my speculation. I believe there might have been a lot more interest in N scale in the 1990’s compared to recent days.
N scale brass is almost a memory after Key stopped importing both HO and N scale.
MR has talked about this subject in the past. Are you using the basic percentages for your baseline that they reported by conducting surveys in the magazine?
I used to be a hardcore “N” scaler for about 20 years…then was into 1 1/2" scale for quite a few years (while still into N) then in 2006 made the leap back into HO scale.
If new product releases are any indication, that’s certainly not the case. A little time spent on N-scale-oriented forums such as Railwire and TrainBoard would also show that N scale is very active today – though it is hard to tell from this forum, it’s true.
If you consider the narrow gauges as part of the scale as a whole, HO has gone up the ladder a tad with all the new interest in HOn3, same for O with On30. TT is slowly losing as is S. Z is starting to expand just a bit. If you really crunch the world numbers, HO is less than 50% if you don’t include the narrow gages. I didn’t relize that HO was running neck in neck with N in Japan, used to be N was far ahead,
a majority of modelers are probably HO, looking back at my choice to start out as an N scaler I think I made a good choice. I like running long trains, I sometimes forget though just how small my N scale stuff is.
S gauge is growing, probably due to Sn3 There are new and interesting Sn3 brass locos and rolling stock popping up constantly in the “Narrow Gauge Gazette” ads. It’s no rush, but it is a bigger presence than it has been traditionally.
Actually, I think narrow gauge itself in most all scales is expanding. HO was always the biggest in terms of models and kits available, but in the 60’s and 70’s HOn3 was still a scratch builders domain and such folk in the hobby were thought a bit off the mark in spite of their almost, to the man, being also considered super modelers. They had to be!
HO is somewhat static currently, I believe, but with a rabid and loyal following. HO is decimated via death and restored by gauge changers and only a few new guys entering the hobby.
N seems to be growing more or less proportionally to all the younger new guys entering the hobby and folks losing their homes or down sizing there living situations. N is no toy or low scale business anymore. It has joined the ranks of super nice scales at what might be termed modeler friendly prices.
I was stunned to discover there is a Nn3…Wow!
I also agree Z is puffing up slightly, mostly due to novelty, much like early N, but is currently limited much as N was due to junky looking, low to no scale locos and forced odd couplers. A good looking Z scale steamer will be unusally expensive. I have yet to see a high scale or even moderately good looking steamer in Z.
Doesn’t MRR publish these figures from time to time? I know I’ve seen them in there before. The percentage for N seems a bit low, I thought it was closer to half the size of HO in modelers.
DON7,
Using eBay listings is an excellent idea. I was thinking of looking at the page count of the various Walthers catalogs, but that doesn’t take into consideration that you have to pay to get into it and Athearn (one of the largest) isn’t even listed because of the Horizon/Walthers competition.
I did the math and got the following percentages using your info:
Z Scale
2,761
1.48%
N Scale
41,746
22.41%
HO Scale
98,590
52.92%
OO Scale
1,140
0.61%
S Scale
2,075
1.11%
O Scale
32,455
17.42%
Standard Scale
652
0.35%
F Scale
97
0.05%
G Scale
6,545
3.51%
Live Steam
247
0.13%
Note that I combined On30 with O-Scale (since no ot