Will brass prices return to 1997 levels? Opinions?

Model Railroader General Discussion (Model Railroader)
1

I used 1997 as a key date as I and others feel that was the peak of brass activity in addition to buying and selling. I’m slightly concerned as I still have a boatload of brass steam models of which today’s selling price is now equal to yesterday’s wholesale or dealer pricing. My resident expert, Swami Choochanada who was great in predicting weather for train shows and other train related things with his yak skull on a stick and by spreading powdered water buffalo poop is nowhere to be found. The current on-line brass guide by Dan Glasure has done a fine job in keeping up with today’s pricing. but it is sad to see models of extroadinary quality fall into the abyss as many know there is a tremendous difference between market price and value. Even though I agree with much of the guide, I feel that it takes more than a few decades to actually learn this stuff fully.

As a brass dealer from 1986 to 2005 I never once suggested to a customer to purchase a brass loco as an investment…buy only because you want to play with it or collect it. During the1990s and well into the 21st. most new brass and quality out of production brass models never saw service and lived in a case or on a shelf…thus rendering them in exellent condition. The decline began with a new generation entering the hobby with little history with steam models (brass models which are mostly collected or played with), and of course the many dinosaurs like me retiring and leaving the hobby. Then of course is the rather new entry of really fine “brass” hybrid models from MTH and BLI. Note: I dislike the term “hybrid” and would prefer “mostly brass” instead. but that is me.

New models being imported today are priced at figures that are quite scary, but it follows the law of suppy vs. demand. Will this lift prices of current out-of-production brass models sort of like a “rising tide lifts all boats”? I don’t know and Choochanada I think has fled back to India

2

With brass locomotives, it’s probably more than simple supply and demand. The manufacturers have made great strides in making plastic locomotives that satisfy more and more modelers, both because they look good, with high-quality paint jobs and details, and also because they run well and now even sound good.

Brass has better competition than it did in the 90s. I seriously doubt that brass will ever regain price relative to higher end plastic.

3

I pretty-much agree with Mister B’s assessment of things.

While I have several brass locomotive, I never bought them as an investment, but mainly because they were affordable at the time, and appealed to me.

Some are modified to be nothing like the prototype they were meant to represent, so I would guess their value to be almost worthless for a collector, but perhaps of interest to some modellers, at a “reasonable” price -I don’t know what that will be, but I will not likely be around to worry about it when that time comes.
Some that I bought needed mechanical work, so, in that respect, they’re better than they once were, but I don’t think that will make them more valuable, at least money-wise…they are more valuable to me because they work as I need them to. For a collector, that feature might be of no importance at all, so no more valuable than it ever was., and perhaps never again that valuable.

Other brass locomotives that I’ve altered to match the appearance of real ones in their class may now be more valuable money-wise, to a particular type of collector, but I doubt that the value would ever approach that of the unmodified model when it was new - in one sense, a more accurate model of a particular real locomotive, but of lower value than original, mainly because of the changing times.

The same, of course, goes for plastic models, so-called “high end” ones (none of which I have) or for that matter, almost any on my layout. All of them are “used”, not still in the box, or in a glass case, but used for my enjoyment.

For the most part, anything I’ve sold in the way of model trains has produced a profit over its original cost, not necessarily because it was “valuable” but becau

4

I would buy brass in a heartbeat, however brass is a timeconsuming part of the hobby that I do not have the time for. We choose our battles and I like DCC and sound and I have seen many brass conversions that are beautiful and run well. My two Rapido Royal Hudsons are incredible in every aspect, so plastic is likely the future for me.

I got this for $35.00 and thought I could practice my painting and DCC/sound conversion on it. For $35.00 I won’t cry if I mess up.

5

I think it will depend on what is it a model of. For models there is no high quality diecast/plastic model of, then price may remain high. Top quality plastic HO models really started in the late 90’s with Life-like 2-8-8-2. As for the hybrid models, as far as I know Broadway Limited is the only one currently doing these for HO. Their last few like the T&P 2-10-4 and Pennsy S2 turbine are really nice and surpass some brass models. However, some of their earlier hybrids are nice but lack detail.
Eric

6

We all have our own set of priorities for our hobby dollars. I have spent a lot on this hobby in 50 years, but $1,000 for a single locomotive 10 years ago, or 20 years ago, was not an apportionment that I could justify against my other modeling goals.

Nor would I spend the $2,500 some models are today.

As I said recently in another thread, when it comes to model trains I checked my OCD at the door years ago and instantly started having more fun.

I have two brass locos, older models I aquired at similar prices to the rest of my roaster. And which have been suitably kitbashed to be part of my freelanced railroad. So I guess it’s good I did not buy them as an investment…I doubt any collectors want them with Bachmann plastic tenders lettered ATLANTIC CENTRAL.

I am not a collector, I only buy what I want for the layout. That goes for locos and rolling stock no matter what it is constructed out of, or by whom, or when.

I do respect the craftsmanship of brass, just like I respect the craftsmanship of a 1973 Rolls Royce Corniche convertible, but I don’t choose to afford one of those either.

There is a very short list of brass I would like to own, they don’t come up often, I’m waiting for the right piece at the right price - but we are only taking about 3 locos that will fill a few small holes in my roster.

Sheldon

7

Today’s brass is just too expensive, today’s plastic RTR models are much cheaper and have all the detail I need.

And older brass is another project that I don’t need - I have 15 locomotive kits (in 3 scales) waiting to be built with dcc.

As for collecting, well I find it cheaper and easier to collect older kits, which I do on a casual basis.

Paul

8

It really depends on the model - less than top tier brass from the 70’s and 80’s has in many cases been eclipsed when it comes to detail by plastic models today. Top tier brass from the 80’s still tops most any plastic model.

Then there are still the brass models that have never been made available in other forms. If you want one of those locos you have to compete for the limited number of brass models available.

Brass diesels are a completely different story. Frankly I have rarely seen any that are worth the asking price. I have one - purchased for about the price of a good plastic version, and for that price it needs drive line repairs (it already was remotored) and paint touch up. It’s no more detailed than the plastic alternatives.

Mostly I am with Sheldon. I don’t own a single “display” loco. I only buy things I can use on my layout. They all run. Same thing with other hobbies - if I came across a vintage electronics kit, unbuilt, that was something I wanted to play around with, I have no qualms about opening it up and building it. Darn the value, full fun ahead. Display only items hold zero value for me. Only when they get used do they have value to me.

–Randy

9

I REALLY appreciate the brass collectors of days gone by that bought all the locomotives I needed and carefully stored them for me until I could afford them.

I am a pre-owned brass buyer now, and I am enjoying the current market. I am able to buy beautiful, like new, brass steamers now for less than I could buy used Oriental Powerhouse hybrid models for ten years ago.

I like brass for the durability and ease of maintenance. I do not run DCC or sound, so it is perfect for me.

I doubt the market for the models imported in the 60s-90s is ever coming back.

-Kevin

10

In order for brass prices to be at 1997 levels, they’d have to be 60% above 1997 levels just to account for inflation.

11

Brass prices are going lower and lower. Sure there are a few that go for a premium. One example are some HOn3 models, once Blackstone came out with their models the price of similar brass tanked. The items in brass that have tanked the most are the diesels and I can see why, I can buy a brand new S4 with sound and DCC for around $70 for some models, super thin handrails and grabs, why buy brass when you have to add DCC and sound and then paint it in most cases. That being said I am still looking for a brass shop engine and T-boiler shay, but only for a rock bottom price because I have many more chestnuts on the fire.

12

Just like anything else, the price of brass model engines depends on supply and demand. While the supply side seems to be quite large due to more and more collections hitting the market for “natural” reasons, the demand side seems to be quite moderate by number of interested people. Add to that the forthcoming economic effects of the current crisis and you can give an estimate in which direction prices will travel.

13

I’m not sure brass will regain the high price of the 90’s.

But brass is still a collector or a very specified market

Modelers who use brass on their layout like them because they often represent specific prototype.

The other problems, is now brass models are everywhere and you can find them at affordable price, because many collection are for sale.

Brass is not a RTR model, they often need tuning, remotoring and are never DCC ready for the model before saying 2005.

This involve some skills to use them and run them; they also often need special job painting.

All these requirements are for a lot of young modelers too much and out of reach ( never say that when you are modeling) for many of them.

When you put, price, need of tuning, paint and maintenance against plastic RTR models, you know the winner in a world where the system try to put only RTR things in our hands and we trash it after use.

Somewhere, I feel brass out of time in 2020, but guys I like them and they are magnificient models with great running capacities.

But because of this kind of has been beside RTR model I’m not sure the price could raise again; new offer on the brass market are marginal and very expensive made in very small run which for me is also a sign of declin of brass models.

They are numerous model of brass with specified models, but I firmly believe they are condamned to dissappear in the future and will be rarely produced because of this has been aspect of such models and all the needs they require to run properly.

Collectors, will still exist but they are not enough to make the market surviving in the future.

But this is just my opinion.

Marc

14

I bought my custom painted United Santa Fe 2-8-0 for $100.00 a great price seeing they have been going for $250.00-500.00. I now have my eyes on another custom painted United Santa Fe 2-8-0 for the same price with a different number.

So,I doubt if brass prices will rebound since the prices continues to plummet.

15

Collecting in general is way down. Everyone I know is de cluttering. Even those still collecting are narrowing down what they collect, getting rid of say any kits they will never build, getting rid of cars or engines that are outside their main intrest.

16

The supply and demand principle seem to work here as much as anything. For example, demand for brass D&RGW standard gauge cabooeses seems to be high as that is the only way you can get a correct HO Rio Grande caboose, aside from maybe 3D printing one and adding all the details, painting and decalling etc.

I’ve managed to expand my brass D&RGW caboose fleet from 6 a few years ago to 9 now by purchasing 3 brass cabooses off of Ebay within the past 1 1/2 years. One I got lucky and bought an unpainted brass ICC EV caboose for $95, but in recent months, unpainted brass D&RGW cabooses seem to get bid up to well over $200 or even over $300. Two painted cabooses I managed on Ebay using the Best Offer function to find out what the dealer wanted rather than having to lose to high bidders. One cost $275 and the other $280, which these days were among the lowest prices I could hope to pay. The other painted D&RGW Overland cabooses I watched on Ebay (quite a few) got bid up to prices in the $450 to $650 range per caboose. About 15 to 20 years ago a new painted Overland Caboose would sell for about $220. Now they seem to, due to demand, get bid up to double or triple that price.

I’ve never bought any brass engines as they have always been out of my budget. I’ve seen quite a few come up on Ebay recently - painted D&RGW diesels, but honestly, when I look at the details, usually the plow is wrong. The prices aren’t bad all things considered at $4xx - $6xx each, but often plastic end up looking better.

I did score an older Hallmark brass troop car painted as D&RGW mow “bunk car” and it looks reasonable close to the one in my Color Guide book. Paid $128 plus shipping and tax off of fleebay.

17

I recently purchased my first brass engine, a Van Hobbies CNR K5a Hudson. As with most CN specific steam models, if you want one the only option is brass. It looked great with a beautiful paint job but ran poorly. Luckily there is a fellow in my city who has been working with brass for at least 40 years and he was able to get it running smooth as silk. It had a can motor so with a decoder installed it will creep at speed step 1. I’m on the lookout for another brass engine now. I want to take advantage of his skill while he is still doing this work.

The only CN specific steam model I know of in plastic is a Northern done by True Line Trains. I have one and it is an incredibly well detailed model but this engine had major quality control issues. It took 3 tries before I landed one that ran well.

The price of CN brass is often pushing a grand for some factory painted models.

CN Charlie

18

There always was a certain element to buying brass that went beyond “I just need a locomotive to pull my trains.” I won’t say that brass was bought as an investment but much of it was bought because it was, in one meaning of the word or another, “art.” Collected for its beauty and fascination.

Plus there was a feeling that buying that first brass locomotive was like pledging a fraternity or smoking and drinking – your passage from boy to man.

There are no statistics I know of to support this statement but I suspect - and I hope - that relatively few brass locomotives or pieces of rolling stock are thrown away, and by that I mean thrown in the garbage. But I have thrown away commercial model trains, locomotives and cars, into the garbage and I know others who have. Just not worth bothering to sell or give to someone else. If I am correct in this assumption then you have somewhere, someplace on some shelf or in some drawer, about 70 years worth of brass production. And each year the supply of old brass gets bigger. This alone could account for a fall in prices. Do you remember the wonderful old British film “The Man in the White Suit”? Alec Guinness invents a frabric that never wears out or gets dirty. So now all you need is one suit, not a closet full. His invention threatens to destroy the entire fabric industry and make all the workers lose their jobs so he becomes the enemy not the hero as he expected. Well maybe brass is that white suit. It never goes away so eventually it depresses the value of all cloth.

Ironically the ongoing switch from DC to DCC might be playing a role as well. Once DCC became factory installed in new locomotives, you started to see the prices fall on non-DCC equipped stuff at swap meets. Not just Athearn, but Atlas, Stewart, and other good makes. The number of guys with DCC is I bet now much higher tha

19

Howard,

I don’t think we are going back to 1990’s prices. I have picked up most (still looking for a couple of things) of what I want that is available in brass in recent years at a steep discount from the heyday prices. I choose brass because modern plastic isn’t available for the models I want.

I still think, as Jim pointed out, that the caboose market will remain strong in brass for the foreseeable future due to the limited options in that category.

The new brass being imported is pretty nice – Key’s Cab forward run of a few years ago is a good example. I almost switched to O scale because of that loco LOL!! I do know that run was expensive and in pretty small numbers.

I think that you are right in that the “brass’ generation is aging out. Most of the older brass models are all over the map in terms of how they run and usually require work to get them up to snuff. I think this aspect may be dampening enthusiasm for older brass among younger modelers.

Guy

20

Back in the 60’s everybody that I knew that was buying brass engines was to pull trains not as a investment after all a 2-8-4 could be had for $45.00 about the going price of many steam locomotive kits that paled when compared to a brass steam engine… Brass diesels from Hallmark,Alco Models and Trains Inc was welcome even though the KMT drive was noisey.